Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 at 4:28 PM
Same-House Sales, Carlsbad
Rob Dawg mentioned yesterday that we should question the cost-per-sf metric, and it, like the median sales price, leaves plenty to be desired.
I think we all agree that reviewing same-house sales gives us the best look at pricing trends and related market conditions.
In January there were 37 houses on the MLS that closed in Carlsbad – here are the 12 that had previously sold since 2004:
| Street Name | Previous Sales Price | January Sales Price | Diff |
| Sweetwater | $700,000 6/04 | +11% | |
| Flat Rock | $645000 3/05 | +1% | |
| Via Ensenada | $849,000 11/04 | -8% | |
| Corte Promenade | $643,000 1/05 | -16% SS | |
| Calle Mejor | $715,500 3/06 | -21% SS | |
| Calle Madrid | $667,000 7/05 | -22% SS | |
| Rcho Carrizo | $700,000 3/05 | -22% SS | |
| Live Oaks | $756,500 11/05 | -24% REO | |
| Alverton | $1,093,500 8/05 | -25% REO | |
| Ocean Crest | $1,049,000 2/05 | -26% REO | |
| Pleasant Vale | $700,000 8/06 | -27% REO | |
| Harrison | $1,100,000 7/07 | -56% REO |
Although it would appear that two-thirds of the long-time owners/sellers did fine, four of them had hit the housing ATM. One was an REO, and three were short sales.
Six REOs plus seven short sales equals 13 of 37, or 35% of all sales that were bank-involved.
The average change in value was -20%.
Harrison looks/smells suspicious, the previous sale was 101% financed, and it had sold previously for $565,000 in 2003. I saw it, and the house was barely standing on a bigger lot – either it was fraud, or the underwriter and appraiser were, well, how do I say it, ‘pushing the envelope’?.
Posted on Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 at 4:28 PM in Afternoon Data, Same-House Sales | 4 Comments » | 
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Also hard to factor changes in conditions of the homes. While some maybe be trashed exiting a foreclosure, others may have had considerable upgrades & remodels. With such a small sample size it’s hard to read too much into the average change, but this is certainly as good as many other distorted measures. Thanks for the post.
gywright | February 4th, 2009 at 4:38 pmOne of the recent Alverton homes that sold is a home I know very well. Original owners bought at $1.1 new and they did a tons of upgrades–fab yard with pool, great landscaping, built-in BBQ, lighting, etc.
They asked $1.25 but had a relo package, so never lowered it. Relo company comes in and it finally sells for $999k. (All cash BTW or the fast closing bank EVER.)
Using your method, that would look like a 10% drop, but I’m pretty sure the “paid” pretty close to 1.2 total after all their upgrades, making it more like -17%.
shoppingaround | February 4th, 2009 at 5:13 pmI agree that while it’s nice to look at these slices of the market in different ways, unless you get down to the details, you never know if you have an accurate picture.
So I try to study and keep track of:
1) specific neighborhoods, even streets
2) within a tight sgft’age range
3) with a certain range of lot size
4) a minimum of X beds and X baths
5) and, what’s the REO activity is in the entire neighborhood (even outside my parameters of size). More activity means faster downward pricing, generally.
Then I have a MUCH better idea if I’m looking at a good deal or not.
shoppingaround | February 4th, 2009 at 5:19 pmI would love to see a table of house prices vs. rent for a comparable home.
Then I can just plug the numbers into my chart ( http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/2/4/saupload_s6_thumb1.jpg ) and figure out where things really stand.
no bubble here | February 4th, 2009 at 5:58 pm