« ARM-Resets
More Loan Mod Madness »

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009 at 6:39 AM

First 8 Days of 2009

Is the market in a flat spin, or improving?

Attached and Detached Closed Sales, Jan 1-8

Year SD Co. NCC NCC Over $900K
1996
284
 52
3
1997
352
 82
5
1998
346
 64
1
1999
500
 116
11
2000
468
 101
16
2001
507
 105
9
2002
513
 100
5
2003
463
 92
11
2004
538
 112
18
2005
609
 103
24
2006
368
 72
23
2007
391
 86
19
2008
293
 46
10
2009
336
 51
5

We have fewer new listings coming on than last year, more overall closings than last year in the county, and attractive interest rates. The elephant in the room is the third category, the higher-end sales - which are struggling. There are currently 2,358 active listings over $900,000, and we’re closing 51 per week!

Though that’s not bad, compared to North County Coastal (NCC) - where there are 928 active listings over $900,000 - and only FIVE closed last week (the same as 1997)

Posted on Tuesday, January 13th, 2009 at 6:39 AM in Sales and Price Check | | Email Email | Print Print You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Reader Comments: 8 Responses

  1. So in MOI is that ~10 MOI for NCC and ~35 MOI for NCC>900K?

    LV Renter | January 13th, 2009 at 8:53 am

  2. Conforming fixed rates need to get to 4-4.5% or less and jumbo 30 year fixed at 5-5.5% or less and we’ll see some more action in that 900k range. A 900k home w/o mello roos and homeowners assoc dues would have to see the first action. I would bet 2/3- 3/4 of those 900k plus listings in NCC are in tracts that cost owners another 1k per month in fees/taxes vs a 900k home w/o the same costs.

    doughboy | January 13th, 2009 at 9:00 am

  3. 10-4 LV Renter, I got 185 weeks worth of $900+ NCC inventory, or about 3.5 years’ worth.

    Dough - 462 of 928 homes built since 2000. (roughly 50% with monthly fees)

    Jim the Realtor | January 13th, 2009 at 9:08 am

  4. Jim, I’d be willing to bet that houses with M-R and HOAs are disproportionately represented in the inventory.

    What are the rental prospects for the $900k market? Is there a market for $4000/mo leases?

    Rob Dawg | January 13th, 2009 at 9:23 am

  5. Jim,

    New listings seem have slowed down during the holidays and the delays in Trustee Sales. I have a feeling this will start to pick up soon. In my target zip code (92508 - small Riverside community), there are over 30 trustee sales sheduled in the next 10 days. February looks really aweful so far too.

    What do you think?

    Angela

    Angela | January 13th, 2009 at 9:45 am

  6. Rob,

    There’s a market for losing $1,000 per month.

    It’s the seller’s anthem over the last couple of years; “I’d rather lose $1,000 per month, than $100,000.”

    So they rent and lose the $1,000 per month, and then sell, losing the $100,000 later (and then some).

    Angela,

    I thought there was going to be a big increase in new listings early last year, but it didn’t materialize. We’ll see this year - I’ve already seen a number of old-timers list, surprisingly.

    Jim the Realtor | January 13th, 2009 at 10:48 am

  7. I was surprised along with you Jim that the listings did not rise last year. It appears people knew not to waste their time and all of the withdrawn and expired listings from 2006-07 did not arrive.

    There is definitely a lull in listings right now due to the Cal postponement legislation implemented Sept-ish. Without any other government intervention I think listins wills tart to pick up in March.

    LV Renter | January 13th, 2009 at 1:10 pm

  8. I’d love to be able to track transaction that bypass the MLS.

    Rob Dawg | January 13th, 2009 at 1:52 pm

Post a new comment