Sunday, January 25th, 2009 at 8:47 AM
Carlsbad View $499,000 Open 1-3
A while back we realized that short sales were going to be a part of our life.
Having quality listings is the name of the game for realtors. But if I have to outwit, outplay, and outlast the lenders to survive a short sale too, let’s at least do it with quality properties owned by cooperative people.
I only had one short sale listing in 2008, and it went pretty good – we only lost one buyer (two days before the bank approved the deal) and found a replacement the next day who paid full price, all-cash.
Here’s the first of 2009 – 3565 Rock Ridge, a former model home in Calaveras Hills.
It’s a 4 br/3 ba, 2,031sf house on a 5,100sf lot with 180-degree views and southerly exposure overlooking most of east Carlsbad. The master is downstairs, The HOA is $124/mo., and the ‘roos is $881/year. It sold for $820,000 in 2005.
Today the list price is $499,000!
If you are interested in seeing it, we’ll be open today 1-3pm (though I won’t be there).
Posted on Sunday, January 25th, 2009 at 8:47 AM in Thinking of Buying? | 28 Comments » | 
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Thanks for the pics Jim.
Let’s not forget, $820K was the 2005 bubble price which was pure fantasy and totally unsustainable. Even at $499K, the price is still too high.
In two years, a house like this will be selling for $350K or less… just wait.
JAP | January 25th, 2009 at 9:51 amThere’s no way that house will ever sell for “$350K or less.” The dirt is worth more than that amount.
GameAgent | January 25th, 2009 at 10:32 amThat looks like a pretty low price for the area. Do you think the lender will accept $499,000 as FMV?
Carli Vera | January 25th, 2009 at 11:40 amHow much is this house worth really? In my opinion a house is worth at most 240 times rent. (You get that number by rent times 12 times 20 for a 5% return on the price of the house, if anyone has other ways calculating house worth, I’m all ears.)
So a comparable house 10 minutes from this one is trying to rent for $2650 ( http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/4650-Pannonia_Carlsbad_CA_92008_1105595367 ). Assuming you can get it rented at that price, this house is priced fairly.
You can further crunch the numbers over at NY Times. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/10/business/2007_BUYRENT_GRAPHIC.html
no bubble here | January 25th, 2009 at 11:50 amJim,
Dwalla | January 25th, 2009 at 12:00 pmIs this a pre-approved short sale,(bank approved the price) or just the opening bid? Has the NOD been filed yet? Nice photos. Thanks
I don’t know Carlsbad, but in a comparable area of LA that would be a good price.
ToadB | January 25th, 2009 at 12:02 pmI’m nowhere near as “fantasy” bearish as the first poster but I will submit that when unemployment peaked in CA at 9.3% in 1994, the real estate market found a bottom 2 years later and consolidated for another year before beginning to rise. With unemployment at 9.3% in Dec 08 and likely to increase thru 09, using that as a barometer I regret to conclude that would make the 09 bottom callers farther off than anyone would care to admit.
Jim, do you really think the Bank is going to accept $499K or is this a starting point to ilicit multiple offers?
Cheers,
SRANLI
Seeing reality and not liking it | January 25th, 2009 at 12:14 pm499 is a very realistic price for Calavera Hills. Carlsbad or no, this subdivision is straight out of the cookie cutter manual and the price drops have been an accurate reflection of the quality of these homes. They’re starter homes approaching starter prices; I would offer 10-15% less actually, to off-set the HOA and MR fees. That price isn’t a lure, it’s reality.
La Verdad | January 25th, 2009 at 1:27 pmThere’s no way that house will ever sell for “$350K or less.” The dirt is worth more than that amount.
————————————-
And when it was $820K, no one ever thought it would sell for $499K -lol!
Just wait.
JAP | January 25th, 2009 at 3:58 pm$350K is a lot of money. Even before 20%+ U6 unemployment and Qualcomm layoffs.
Alex | January 25th, 2009 at 4:55 pmI’m with JAP in calling BS on GameAgent. This is a 5K foot lot after all. Her emphasis on the dirt may not be misplaced, however, since the house looks like a scraper. The fact that knife catchers will probably bid over ask doesn’t change that fact.
Natureboy | January 25th, 2009 at 5:27 pm25 people came by the open house, and no offers.
Price needs to be sharp with this floor plan, because master is downstairs with den, plus two bedrooms up. Not a traditional layout. But last sale of this model was $595,000 with no view in August.
Will the lender (IndyMac) go for a price like this? It all depends on their appraisals, and if the listing agent can make a compelling case to back it up.
Jim the Realtor | January 25th, 2009 at 5:54 pmNatureboy…
A scraper? ha ha ha You may have missed your true calling:
GameAgent | January 25th, 2009 at 6:26 pmhttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/jobs/28bankers.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
“I’m nowhere near as “fantasy” bearish as the first poster but I will submit that when unemployment peaked in CA at 9.3% in 1994, the real estate market found a bottom 2 years later and consolidated for another year before beginning to rise. With unemployment at 9.3% in Dec 08 and likely to increase thru 09, using that as a barometer I regret to conclude that would make the 09 bottom callers farther off than anyone would care to admit.”
The difference this time is that housing is LEADING the economic malaise. In ’94, housing followed the layoffs. So all bets are off on when prices bottom…
Aztec | January 25th, 2009 at 7:03 pm“$350K is a lot of money. Even before 20%+ U6 unemployment and Qualcomm layoffs.”
Uhh, sadly that’s what it costs to landscape a 1 acre lot with a pool.
Aztec | January 25th, 2009 at 7:04 pmUhh, sadly that’s what it costs to landscape a 1 acre lot with a pool.
That’s why you shouldn’t landscape and build a pool yourself. Far cheaper to buy it out of foreclosure.
W.C. Varones | January 25th, 2009 at 7:53 pmI wanted to write and say “GameAgent is an idiot.” However, I’m worried that true idiots would find out about it and get offended. “We’re idiots and all,” they’d write. “But we’re not as stupid as GameAgent.”
greenlander | January 25th, 2009 at 8:52 pm“The difference this time is that housing is LEADING the economic malaise….”
This isn’t all that accurate. A contraction in credit is leading the economic malaise, the collapse in housing prices is just an effect of this fact. But really, it doesn’t matter much which caused what. Unemployed people can’t afford mortgage payments thus contributing to higher rates of foreclosures and less home buying.
Anyhow, I don’t consider this property going down to $350k that unrealistic.
Carnap | January 26th, 2009 at 12:06 amCan the listing agent make a compelling case with recent comparable sales to back it up?
Carli Vera | January 26th, 2009 at 8:43 am“I don’t consider this property going down to $350k that unrealistic.”
I wouldn’t either, at least in the short term. We’re probably going to see a “reverse bubble” of sorts, where prices at “the bottom” fall as unsustainably low as they went high at the heights. And the newer a house is, with more densely-packed development layouts, higher HOAs and the dark shadow of M-R, the worse it’s likely to be.
GeneK | January 26th, 2009 at 9:50 amJAP is right this house is worth 350k. Also, look at the complete listing, it needs TLC…..meaning its trashed inside. So depending upon damage this house house has, start to subtract repair cost from 350k.
Plus it has that “illegal” tax Mel roos and HOA!!
I saw the house from outside, the street is very narrow and the neighbors are too close. Not very impressive.
Wait for ALT -A to reset later this year…it may even go below 350k
NKC | January 26th, 2009 at 10:51 amIt got cleaned up nice – I took out the TLC comment.
Jim the Realtor | January 26th, 2009 at 10:55 amJim,
Cleaning is nice, when I see TLC needed on listing. My feeling is the house needs to be checked to plumbing leaks, the back yard what I could see in the pic needs a lot of work. Electricity, appl…..every detail needs to be checked.
TLC for me is a huge flag..
NKC | January 26th, 2009 at 11:00 amI say what I mean, and mean what I say, in my MLS remarks – wish more realtors would do the same.
Jim the Realtor | January 26th, 2009 at 11:16 amI’m glad I found this site. Thanks for taking the time to post, Jim.
I agree with some of the other posters who say this house is not worth 499k. My reasoning is that the property has HOA, Roos and low sq. ft. Regardless of what I think, good luck, Jim.
Chris | January 26th, 2009 at 1:30 pmDirt is maybe 100k
doughboy | January 26th, 2009 at 3:02 pm2″ x 4″s, chicken wire, tar paper, stucco, tile roof and slab, electical, plumbing, vinyl windows total is 100-150k
Landscaping 30k
Kitchens and baths 50k
Flooring 20-30k
=$350.00k
“We’re probably going to see a “reverse bubble” of sorts, where prices at “the bottom” fall as unsustainably low as they went high at the heights. And the newer a house is, with more densely-packed development layouts, higher HOAs and the dark shadow of M-R, the worse it’s likely to be.”
I don’t know, GeneK. Possible. But that may apply more to financial assets, where there’s a sense of risk from holding/buying, and there are easy alternatives (hold cash). It may not apply to “stuff” like homes quite as easily to create a reverse bubble.
Aztec | January 26th, 2009 at 6:55 pmThanks NKC — I was waiting for someone to comment on the neighborhood! The models did look nice when they were first open, but the streets are indeed narrow and most of the houses have no front yard — your front room is about 7 feet from the street! And your neighbor is practically in your living room. Not much privacy — $820K was insane. I would still say somewhere in the 400′s though since it is Carlsbad. McMillin really shouldn’t have designed the neighborhood to be so ghetto though.
allyson24 | January 28th, 2009 at 4:50 am