Tuesday, January 20th, 2009 at 7:19 AM
We Have a Winner!
The latest contest concludes today:
Guess the number of closed sales for November and December combined.
The prizes are:
A. Four tickets to a Padres game. (OK, OK, not much of a prize)
B. Six tickets to the Buick Invitational, Feb 3-8 (good for any day)
C. Invitations to the “Birthday Bowl” party - the Super Bowl is on my 50th birthday (2/1/09), so plans are in the works for a combo event.
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Today’s count of the November and December closed sales is 5,059.
Congratulations to our winner ROB DAWG!
Rob, We know you live up north, and it would be a long haul to come to San Diego just for a Super Bowl party without the Chargers. So I’ll add another invite:
Come down for the party, and we’ll squeeze in time to do a tour of a couple of REOs so you can see them in person. We’ll shoot a video!
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The reason given for examining year-end sales was to see if we’d have a 10% price decline in 4Q08.
Here is a comparison of the SD County sales in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008:
| Period | Sales | $-per-sf | DOM |
| 3Q08 | 8,702 | $255 | 66 |
| 4Q08 | 8,224 | $226 | 62 |
| Diff | -5% | -11% | sim |
The average decline in SALES between 3Q and 4Q has been -15% over the last eight years, so the 2008 number is pretty strong – the best of the decade!
But check out the change in pricing between 3Q and 4Q:
2001 = +1%
2002 = +3%
2003 = +5%
2004 = +14%
2005 = -6%
2006 = -2%
2007 = -6%
2008 = -11%
The +23% of the first four years has been erased by the -25% since. But these are county stats, the local markets vary wildly. There are houses in Oceanside that have sold for 1999 prices, and Carmel Valley homes that have barely budged.
Here are the contestants, and their guesses:
3,011 Coconuts
3,707 Downturn
3,776 Neil Stone
3,840 Skeptical Buyer
3,871 JamesDean
3,900 AC
3,911 Wes
4,000 Doughboy
4,050 Smithers
4,100 FreedomCM
4,129 Chris
4,200 CA renter
4,242 Neil Diamond
4,321 Kwaping
4,350 mybleachhouse
4,409 Kingside
4,538 JbirdFunk
4,550 OCVulture
4,609 Just a Broker
4,737 Lisa in OC
4,872 Stephen Waits
4,874 FirstTimeRenter
4,949 Erica Douglass
5,000 CVman
5,021 Rob Dawg
5,150 Angela
5,259 Turnack
5,271 Westparker
5,555 Mojo
5,683 Keith rettig
5,684 sdduuuude
5,777 FSD
5,800 Jakob
5,950 Dwalla
6,138 Mozart
6,500 Simone
6,666 Damian
Here are the last few Nov & Dec combos:
2008 = 5,059
2007 = 3,254
2006 = 4,726
2005 = 5,603
2004 = 6,464
2003 = 6,988
2002 = 6,202 – (EZ-financing kicked in)
2001 = 5,096 – (should have kept declining in a natural 10-year cycle )
2000 = 5,661
Posted on Tuesday, January 20th, 2009 at 7:19 AM in Contests | 10 Comments » | 
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[blushes]
News for you Jim, Mrs. the Realtor had already invited Mrs. Dawg and I and we’ve already accepted. Should be fun. Can I ride in the Chebby?
Rob Dawg | January 20th, 2009 at 7:38 am50? Can’t wait to see the portrait hidden in the attic.
San Diego RE Bea | January 20th, 2009 at 8:09 amYou’re going to be 50, Jim??? You’re not contankerous enough to have earned the age of 50.
When I reach the age of 50, I’m going to be much more contankerous than you. I’ll have really EARNED the age of 50.
greenlander | January 20th, 2009 at 9:12 amAwhh!!! So close. Good job Rob.
Angela
Angela | January 20th, 2009 at 9:59 amI can’t wait to hear my own mellifluous voice uttering those timeless phrases; “mold-like activity,” “Detroit River,” “sink optional.” “international flair,” “good formica,” “wood covered character,” “pergo window,” “the sounds of freedom,” “bank’s door ornament,” “extra rooms not on tax code,” “where’s the front door?,” “Toboggan Stopper,” “Hello there! You guys got any beer?,” “back here on the mold farm,” “the penthouse.” I’m sure I missed dozens of keepers. I’ll bring my Slinky™.
Rob Dawg | January 20th, 2009 at 11:22 amCongrats Rob Dawg!
Mozart | January 20th, 2009 at 2:55 pmGratz Dawg
Dwip | January 20th, 2009 at 8:20 pmIs the party catered by an ice cream truck?
SantaFeHills | January 20th, 2009 at 8:59 pmCongratulations, Rob Dawg!
CA renter | January 20th, 2009 at 10:04 pmRob,
You are a visionary! Congrats
doughboy | January 21st, 2009 at 11:22 am