Thursday, January 15th, 2009 at 11:08 AM
Carlsbad December Sales
Robert asked about houses selling without being on the MLS.
Last month there were 79 sales of SFRs in Carlsbad:
New tract houses: 11
MLS resales: 63 (some SFR sales are in the attached category in MLS)
Non-MLS sales: 5
Total: 79
All of the new-home tracts were advertised in the MLS.
What about the five sales off the MLS grid?
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One house that sold had a realtor sign out front, so it must have been an exclusive,
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One was a short sale that was about $100,000 under a model-match November sale nearby,
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One was a recently expired listing that closed just under the former LP, and
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Two closed at big discounts, so they were either intra-family or somebody got a great deal.
I checked out both; the first was 3995 Syme Drive, a 3 br/2.5 ba, 2,246sf remodeled house built in 1984 with nice ocean view that closed for $477,000:
The other was 4734 Gateshead, a 5 br/3.5 ba, 2,953sf house that sold for $300,000. The buyer told me that it had extensive water/mold damage, and he planned to spend $250,000 on repairs and improvements:
What about financing on the 70 that had data?
VA = 3%, (2, both over $900,000!)
FHA = 16%, with 9 of 11 funding sales over $600,000 (not possible today)
At least 20% down payment = 57% (40)
Less than 20% down payment = 11% (8)
Cash = 13% (9)
Interesting to note that that 70% of the buyers have a substantial cash investment!
How much discount, based on original list price?
Sold over list price = 11%
Sold at list price = 3%
Sold 1-5% under list = 24%
Sold 6-10% under list = 15%
Sold 11-15% under list = 27%
Sold 16-20% under list = 10%
Sold 21-25% under list = 5%
Sold 26-30% under list = 3%
Sold 31% + under list = 1%
You could say that all the sales were purchased at market value – all this shows is that nearly half (46%) of the sellers had to reduce their price by more than 10% before they found a buyer. Later I’ll do a chart that matches the amount of discount to days on market.
Posted on Thursday, January 15th, 2009 at 11:08 AM in Monthly Sales, Monthly Sales Count | 5 Comments » | 
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Are $900K VA loans possible?
GameAgent | January 15th, 2009 at 1:12 pmThat’s fewer than I expected but thank you for doing the work. Hopefully you don’t go to all this effort just because I ask but because it is relevant to the discussion.
As to DOM. Do you have a reliable source as to actual DOM or are we talking about whatever the last listing claimed?
Rob Dawg | January 15th, 2009 at 1:28 pm“Thousands of Ventura County residents were pushed out of their homes last year, and many more were left hanging on by a thread — a situation exacerbated by mounting job losses. In Ventura County, December foreclosure filings surged 37 percent from November and 97 percent from a year ago, according to RealtyTrac. ‘The primary cause of the rising foreclosure rate is really the jobless rate,’ said Sung Won Sohn, economics professor at CSU Channel Islands.”
“‘I think it has kind of spread and is reaching a new group of homeowners,’ said Kay Wilson-Bolton, a broker with Century 21 Buena Vista and a foreclosure specialist. ‘Now it seems to be reaching into the middle class.’”
“Banks seemed to be laying low during the holidays, she said. However, she’s gearing up for more foreclosures in 2009. More homeowners are seeking her advice, wondering if they should try to keep their homes. They’re less emotional and less willing to fight to keep their homes than they were a year ago because they see the price slide continuing and ‘want to get out before it’s really bad,’ Wilson-Bolton said.”
“Now they’re looking at it like a business decision, considering the money they could save in the months living free of charge in a foreclosed home while squirreling away a nest egg, she said.”
“Bill Watkins, executive director of the UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast, said December’s data indicates ‘that we’re not at the bottom of the cycle.’ Homeowners might try to make payments after losing a job, but they’ll eventually walk away and move out of state if they can’t find work, Watkins said. ‘There’s no way to sell a home in this market … and walk away whole,’ Watkins said.”
Nathan | January 15th, 2009 at 3:15 pmThanks for your detailed work.
Jim Cheeseman | January 15th, 2009 at 10:11 pm477K for ocean view seems like a pretty damn good deal for the long term. The other is clearly an outlier. I’m sure you could have bought a bunch of smoke damaged houses in RB 2 years ago at a steep discount too.
Former RB Resident | January 16th, 2009 at 7:09 am