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Saturday, January 10th, 2009 at 6:25 PM

Thanks Dwip!

Hi Jim,

I thought it would be interesting to plot up the Dec sales/price data you put up this morning.

Graph is attached.  The X axis is the % change in sales, the Y axis is the % change in price. The size of dots indicates the number of sales (more sales are bigger dots), and the color indicates the price (blue is cheap, red is expensive).

I thought it was interesting that the data falls into two distinct groups.  One group lies along what I call the “REO-Reality” axis, which is where the neighborhoods are acting in a equilibrated fashion.  You can see that these are the places where the price per square foot is less, and have been experiencing active sales (i.e., big blue dots).

The other group falls along what I call the “I’m not giving it away” axis, and is expensive places that have had very small sales (small red dots).   These are mostly the high end coastal communities, although La Jolla does not fall on this line.

Love the blog,

Regards,

Dwip

Posted on Saturday, January 10th, 2009 at 6:25 PM in Monthly Sales | 8 Comments » | Email Email | Print Print You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Reader Comments: 8 Responses

  1. Brilliant, better than Case-Shiller, plot the intersection and same sales rate and you get -22% per sq ft. Same price per sq ft is somewhere around 85% fewer sales.

    Blog note; I’ve been playing with the excel sheets, interesting and should have something mod morning tomorrow. Sorry for the delay.

    Rob Dawg | January 10th, 2009 at 6:43 pm

  2. Nice graph Dwip.

    The REO up the street had a huge number of visitors at today’s first open house. I drove by and saw at least 10 cars parked outside. They listed for 10% less than the same model that has been sitting on the MLS for 4 months.

    Chris | January 10th, 2009 at 7:18 pm

  3. I think my browser is not displaying this graph correctly, or why is Cardiff sitting at -60% price with no sales?

    Simone | January 10th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

  4. great graph

    greenlander | January 10th, 2009 at 9:33 pm

  5. Wow. RSF prices have dropped as much as San Marcos N, but SM N sales have taken off while RSF sales have hit the skids.

    That tells me that higher end homes are having a tough, tough time. Average Joe homes are selling again now that prices are returning to some type of normalcy.

    The Good Life | January 11th, 2009 at 2:23 am

  6. Fabulous info. Thanks to all.

    shoppingaround | January 11th, 2009 at 4:07 am

  7. Dwip, Jim, it would be interesting to replot this over time and see if the Carlsbads, PQ, Encinitas slide down that Reality axis.

    As for the other axis, it just goes to show how there was really no method to the pricing during the bubble in these areas. People just listed (and sold!) for whatever ridiculous price they decided to pull out of their rear ends. There could be much higher correction in the high-end areas.

    I might, however, draw that axis through Del Mar toward Carmel Valley and La Jolla (instead of SB and RSF.) I say this because there’s such small sample size in SB and Cardiff, and we’ve also acknowledged that RSF is its own beast. I’d say these 3 should be the outliers. Then it would be interesting to see which axis CV and LJ follow over time. Just a suggestion.

    Thanks for the great graph!!

    The Blur | January 11th, 2009 at 9:19 am

  8. Dwip and Jim,

    Very nice work! Thanks for putting that up.

    CA renter | January 11th, 2009 at 9:56 pm

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