Comments on: Oceanside as Bellweather

By: Simone

Simone — Thu, 01 Jan 2009 06:27:49 +0000

Thanks for adding those Vista and south SM numbers. I thought they dropped pretty hard recently, but it’s nice to see stats backing up a gut feeling.

By: sd_momma22

sd_momma22 — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 16:50:13 +0000

Thanks Jim. Is it possible to add 92069, north SM as well? If too much hassle, no worries. Thanks again for the other additions.

By: BO

BO — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 15:51:04 +0000

This blog leaves me with the idea that the RE market exists in a vacuum devoid of the effects of the economy, and I start wondering if I should buy then I snap back to the reality of all the people I know who are seriously considering bailing out due to job loss, job insecurity, 401k and stock losses, overindebtedness, lower commissions, etc etc. With the state and city budget fiascos just now coming home to roost, I don’t see any turnaround for a few years at least.

By: doughboy

doughboy — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:10:47 +0000

$200.00 per sq in Oside is right where it should be. Del Mar wants $600.00 +per sq ft. Get me a buyer in 92084 for $200 per sq ft and I’m all giddy! I think Vista is about where Oside is right now.

By: Jim the Realtor

Jim the Realtor — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 06:07:44 +0000

I added Vista and S. San Marcos, and they all have had strong downward movement, around -40% each!

By: sd_momma22

sd_momma22 — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 04:59:05 +0000

I 2nd that, adding San Marcos would be great to see. We just closed on a house with upgrades and a pool for $150 ppsf and I’m thinking that there is still a small amount of wiggle room here. Maybe bottoming at $141. But, OCrenter is right, because our property is 3300 sq ft in 92069 and Discovery Hills, with smaller, 2200 sq ft homes are still $200+ ppsf. BUT, SEH is being hammered like 92069. Notice that lately? We thought about it, but outside of homes, there’s nothing accessible over there. And those Mello Roos are sky high. Either way, stats for 92078 and 92069 would be awesome. REO’s are everywhere, but they are selling. Thanks again, Jim. You blog is fabulous and your insight is tremendous.

By: Simone

Simone — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:28:01 +0000

Great stat, Jim. Could you add Vista and San Marcos to the line-up – I’d be really curious about those.

By: Coconutz!

Coconutz! — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 03:27:09 +0000

Slinkys go up before they go down!
Coconutz!

By: The Blur

The Blur — Wed, 31 Dec 2008 01:40:59 +0000

GREAT chart, Jim. Thank you.

I find it interesting that Oceanside and Carlsbad 92009 were so similar in $/sqft at the peak. Maybe it’s because O’side has such smaller properties. OC Renter referenced not to long ago (maybe in his blog) that once you reach a certain size house, square footage becomes less significant. I agree with this and maybe it helps explain how close they are.

For places like La Jolla and Del Mar, I think they could drop further than 37% because there was really no method to the pricing and buying madness during the bubble. People figured everywhere is expensive, so these nice areas should be REALLY expensive. Sellers (or their agents) pulled ridiculously large numbers out of their rear ends and the Mob bought into it because real estate always goes up. I would love to live in these areas, but I don’t know if I’ll ever believe they’re worth twice as much as Encinitas. Or maybe that’s always been the case and I didn’t know it.

Jim, I also like your point about paying more attention to features. During the bubble it seemed like people turned a blind eye to little things like power lines, backing up to freeways, tiny lots, sewers in the backyard, etc. Oops!

By: Dr. Detroit

Dr. Detroit — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 23:57:59 +0000

Good info as usual Jim. I agree that the subprime debacle hit O-Side hard, and that is reflected in the prices. The Alt-A debacle will hit the tonier areas pretty hard as well over the next year or two. I’m sure you’ll be keeping tabs on it for us.