Thursday, December 11th, 2008 at 7:23 AM
REOs on the Market
Kelly Bennett asked how many foreclosures were on the market, so I checked the MLS using the new REO category available.
The resulting MLS search found 586 active REO listings in SD County, with 382 closed escrows since 11/1/08.
There has to be more, right? Using the new category is not required, so let’s keep checking.
Using the new ‘foreclosure activity’ criteria, a search of the tax rolls showed 10,277 bank-owned properties currently in San Diego County. Here are the counts by area:
| Town or Area | # of bank-owneds |
| RSF | |
| Del Mar | |
| Solana Bch | |
| Carmel Vly | |
| La Jolla | |
| Encinitas | |
| West RB | |
| Poway | |
| San Mrcs S. | |
| Carlsbad | |
| Vista | |
| Oceanside |
It’s tougher trying to figure how many of the 10,277 are actually on the MLS, so let’s just look at Carlsbad for a sampler.
There are 66 of Carlsbad’s 133 bank-owneds on the MLS, or 49.6%.
Kelly, want to guess that there are roughly 5,000 bank-owned properties listed on the MLS, broken down to around 3,000 actives and 2,000 pendings?
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The actives/pendings ratio of the 66 listings is 39/27, or 1.44 (which is pretty good selling).
The overall Carlsbad actives/pendings ratio is 607/158, or 3.84 on 12/8/08.
Last year the actives/pendings ratio was 490/58, or 8.45 on 12/6/07.
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I don’t have the cost-per-sf from last year, but this year’s avg sf:
607 Actives: Avg LP = $813,468 or $334/sf.
158 Pendings: Avg LP = $639,760 or $285/sf.
91 Solds since 11/1/08: Avg SP = $578,502 or $276/sf.
Posted on Thursday, December 11th, 2008 at 7:23 AM in Foreclosure Count, REO Counts | 5 Comments » | 
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That last part about the SF amounts is the most telling. It really reinforces what you’ve been saying all along about sellers needing to drop prices.
Kwaping | December 11th, 2008 at 10:15 amWow I knew Oceanside and Vista were bad, but put them side by side with other areas and the difference is bigger than I’d have thought.
One article on Pay Option ARMs that really symbolizes the helplessness of brokers:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/28035238/
I once posted I knew a mortgage agent getting a massage, and he was just saying “I feel so bad. We’re making a bubble and there’s nothing we can do about it.” The above article really says it all.
BDiego | December 11th, 2008 at 12:37 pmDon’t forget that O’side is the second-largest city in SD County (last I knew), so their numbers would be higher, no matter what; but the trend is undeniable.
Now, just think about what those peak sellers in O’side were doing with their windfall profits from the sales of those starter homes. Think they put 70% down and moved next door? Nope. They used that money to move up to the next level, like 92008 (Carlsbad) and better areas in O’side, Vista, etc.
This is what fed the bubble…all the way up. If there are no more $200K-$400K profits on the starters, where is all the money going to come from for the move-up ‘hoods? This is why we will see the “slinky” effect. The bottom has to fall out first, then you’ll see it roll from the less desirable to the more desirable neighborhoods, IMHO. It’s just a matter of time.
CA renter | December 11th, 2008 at 5:08 pm^^^ what see-eh renter said.
Dwip | December 11th, 2008 at 9:36 pmThat’s a depressing article, BDiego. Something struck me as weird though: that broker started in 2007? Were they still originating those kind of loans in ’07???
Simone | December 12th, 2008 at 3:37 pm