bubbleinfo.com

The Best of Bubbleinfo.com in 2008:

January – We documented the Adams St. property, and it’s kooky owner. She repeatedly refinanced her mom’s house, and then stopped making payments and kept suing the lenders for ‘elder abuse’. The funniest part was that in May the owner found us talking about her, and left her own response at the bottom of the comments:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/01/stolen-equity/

Her trustee sale is scheduled for next month.

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February – This month we first noted the new homes built on the corner of Carlsbad Village and Highland. When they hit the open market in June, 2006, the list prices were up to $1.499 million. By February they were down to $1.199 million and still didn’t have any takers, so they attempted to rent them out instead, asking $3,695/mo.

By the end of 2008, under a court order, they were listed in the mid-$800,000s for two weeks, and then withdrew them from the MLS. None marked pending.

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March – We saw a superior property in ‘The Ranch’ in Carlsbad get snapped up for cash at the trustee sale, and at the time I thought it was a great deal. The buyer still owns it (not a flipper!).

Here’s the post:

This will go down as one of the better deals of the year – the trustee sale was yesterday for this property at 7951 Sitio Solana in the Ranch development in Carlsbad. Though it was mentioned here and on several foreclosure sites, only one bidder showed up at the trustee sale – and bought it for the minimum bid of $941,426. There hasn’t been a sale that low for a house of that size, 3,654 sf, in the Ranch since 2000-2001. The person who got foreclosed was the original owner who paid $746,000 in January, 1999. The floor plan has the master suite on the first floor, and this premium location on a quiet culdesac made it a superior property – the type to keep an eye out for when looking for a house!

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April – The REO journey began on April 22nd, when Countrywide sent me the first eight listings. We’ve since closed 18 of them for a total of $4,532,800. It doesn’t look like it’s going to continue for much longer under the current format, now that Bank of America has taken over. But my wife did get me to admit that it was fun while it lasted – and they provided great blog material!

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May – We saw HaCanada win tickets to the U.S. Open for guessing the closest to the 2,950 detached closed sales in 1Q08 in SD County.

Since then, another 19 sales were added by late-reporters, making the total 2,969 today. Jenny in SD, with her guess of 2,971, should have been the winner.

Jenny, want some Padres tickets?

The first REO video appeared in May too:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neY1P7UvNHw

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June – We came across the Alt-A map from the New York Fed – here is November’s report:

Currently the darkest zip code in North County Coastal is 92078 – don’t be surprised if we see more bad news for San Elijo Hills in 2009.

For easier reading, here is the link to the NY Fed reports:

http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/

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July – We had out first video encounter with an ice cream truck – in downtown Vista where you got to see the bubbleinfo vehicle of choice, the 1966 Chevy 3/4-ton Stepside:

(This video has been seen 7,683 times!)

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August – There were a few professional flippers mentioned this month who purchased properties at the trustee sales, how did they do?

All four sold and did well:

9745 Tallus Glen, SD - bought for $444,125, closed for $525,000 a month later.

602 Strand, Carlsbad – bought for $570,200, closed for $775,000 cash three months later.

976 Whimbrel, Carlsbad – bought for $636,231, sold for $757,000 two months later.

1738 Village Run, Encinitas – bought for $51,173 (assumed $305,000 too), sold for $470,000.

We considered this builder as a professional seller too:

Mustang Ridge – Even though it looks like the loans are around $1.35 million, it’s still unsold and proudly listed at $1.765 million. NOD filed last month.

La Costa Oaks – There was also the 4,190sf one-story house at the top of the hill. The original owners paid $1.755 million in December, 2004, but got foreclosed. I thought the list price would be around $1.395 once the bank listed, but they came in at an aggressive $1.245 million. It closed for $1.2 million cash.

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September – My first arrests of squatters in an REO:

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October – People asked about where to find auction news, so I listed all the places:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/10/san-diego-auction-news/

My only solo attempt at blogtalkradio hit a snag, but looking forward to more next year!

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November – We started a new contest, guessing the number of closed sales in November and December of homes in SD County. Today’s count is 4,509, which means 1,000+ closed in the last seven business days, and should leave us around 5,000 by the time we take the final tally on January 20th (allowing for late-reporters).

Here are the contestants in that range:

4,538 JbirdFunk
4,550 OCVulture
4,609 Just a Broker
4,737 Lisa in OC
4,872 Stephen Waits
4,874 FirstTimeRenter
4,949 Erica Douglass
5,000 CVman
5,021 Rob Dawg
5,150 Angela
5,259 Turnack
5,271 Westparker
5,555 Mojo

Here are the last few Nov & Dec combos:

2007 = 3,254
2006 = 4,726
2005 = 5,603
2004 = 6,464
2003 = 6,988

To see this year’s sales end up higher than 2006 will be very impressive, and means that prices must have come down enough, rates are low enough, and loans are easy enough to get, that people are buying!

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December – We gave the Obama team the following advice on housing:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/12/free-advice/

A discussion on the merits of Proposition 13 generated 101 comments:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2008/12/prop-13-redo/

and in general we saw government bailout programs flail about, conforming mortgage rates plummet to under 6%, and renewed interest in buying real estate.

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I think Obama is going to step up to the microphone and tell people to go buy a house – and it’ll work, in concert with lower prices and rates. 2009 will be a very active year!

But 2009 will have to be hopping at bubbleinfo.com to keep up with 2008’s numbers:

570 posts, thousands of comments, and 57 youtube videos!

WOW – WHAT A YEAR!

Thank you to everyone for reading and participating!

Jim Klinge, Realtor and part-time blogger

The favorite videos:

The house with linoleum on the ceiling and a regular stop for ice cream trucks:

Sound of the Year (hat tip to RT whose constant encouragement has been invaluable – thanks!)

Bubba’s Freak Circus:

The Valley Center bomber (has 7,145 views in first week!)

The Poway fixer that re-listed this week with a different agent but same price:

The ‘Toboggan Stopper’

Jessica’s Ice Cream truck – seen a few times since around town:

The Rose Parade is one of the best things that ever happened to Southern California real estate.  The weather is always sunny on January 1st, and tomorrow is no different - they’re expecting 72 degrees!

Folks from around the world who are freezing see us on TV and say, “Let’s move to California!

We have an additional promotion this year - the NAR is sponsoring a float in the parade, and we got a sneek peek. 

THEY’RE HOPING TO REACH OUT TO THOSE WHO ARE UPSIDE-DOWN.

“Backs to open space” – The sewage plant is only in the planning stages.

“Charming” – About the size of a large storage shed. (see synonyms such as cute, quaint, cozy, etc)

“Cream puff” – Price is puffed up to cream the buyer.

“Duplicate listing” – another company has the same model listed down the street for less.

“Easy commute to everywhere” – Everywhere?

“Easy to show” – But hard to sell.

“Eat in kitchen” – Must hover over the stove and eat out of the pan.

“Fixer-upper” – Some agents bite their upper lip when they show it.

“Freshly painted inside” – Had to paint over leak stains.

“Great access” – House backs to freeway & is next to entrance ramp.

“Great price for the area” – Way too great.

“Highly sought after area” – Police seek often.

“Mint condition” – Need a mint to be in condition to buy it.

“Must see to believe” – You’ll say that about the price when you view it.

“Panoramic views” – Somewhere on the panorama you can catch a glimpse of the top of the hill between the houses across the street and above the shopping center.

“Priced to sell” – Sometime in the next 50 years.

“Original owner” – Owner has great pride in the original colors such as avocado green and harvest gold.

“Pride of ownership” – Owner mows the lawn occasionally

“Rents under market value” – Ever seen one rent over market value?

“Starter home” – Start cleaning, start repairing, start your therapy for claustrophobia.

“Updated” – Painted the dark cabinets white.

“Well maintained” – Sellers motivated because of the need for constant maintenance.

Now that their prices have dropped substantially, Oceanside has been on a good run this year. There wasn’t an unusual drop-off in sales during the 4th quarter either, despite the grim economic news.

I calculated the averages from the last thirteen years, and compared to 2008’s numbers – look how steady it is in Oceanside:

Oceanside, CA 92054, 92056, 92057, 92058

Not only are the number of sales above average, the pricing is back in line historically too. Here are other signs that Oceanside’s market is finding equilibrium:

575 Actives / 277 Pendings = 2.08 to 1 ratio (2:1 considered the healthiest market)

46 closings since Dec. 15th = $200/sf (right in line with quarterly average)

25 of 46 closings sold over list price.

No matter how you slice it, Oceanside’s market looks good. How does pricing compare to the peak?

The dollars-per-sf average declined 37%, which sounds about right. We know there have been some houses selling for 50% to 60% off peak pricing, and there had to be some at 25% off too.

I think it’s safe to say that if other areas experienced the same, their sales would be cooking too. If all it takes is a 37% decline from the peak to get Oceanside back to frenzy-like statistics, how far off is your area?

There aren’t any of the prime coastal areas that are approaching -37% yet, and probably why their sales are more sluggish. Yet you can verify with any buyer in Vista or So. San Marcos that the market is active with lookers, and we’ll see if they turn into buyers.

But wouldn’t they perform better than Oceanside? The Big O probably had more subprime loans than all of these other areas combined, but all that did was exacerbate their price decline.

Will the other areas follow?

If you feel that all areas will decline approximately the same, then you have the chart above to guide you as to how much further your area has to go.

If you thought that there should be a premium added for premium areas, then add some cush to the -37% decline. For instance, Carmel Valley is only showing a 10% drop from peak to 4Q08. If you thought that the supply and demand for CV was strong enough that the -37% expectation should really be more like -20% to -25%, then we’re about half way there.

This is a general statistical overview – I think what is happening more and more is that, as prices get lower, buyers are shifting their focus towards finding a property with all the extras, and one that fits all their needs. Statistically, further declines in pricing are likely to be choppy, because I think there are buyers willing to pay today’s prices if they could just find a really good house.

from sddt.com

Barratt American, the Carlsbad-based homebuilding firm, and three affiliates, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Christmas Eve, but how much it owes, and how it will survive aren’t immediately clear.

While Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) has claimed it is owed $79 million in secured debt (not counting $5 million in unsecured BofA debt) and Barratt’s top 20 unsecured creditors bring the total to more than $100 million, any remaining secured and unsecured creditor totals weren’t listed in the bankruptcy filing.

Along with BofA, the top creditor amounts include $2.66 million for Interior Specialist Inc. of Carlsbad, $1.3 million for Canac Kitchens of Carlsbad and $1.26 million for SelectBuild Construction of San Marcos.

Michael Pattinson, Barratt American president, declined to speculate on how much is owed saying it would just be a guess. He did say he plans to keep operating and develop what he can until the company gets back on its feet.

“We will continue to build custom homes and fire replacement homes as we sell existing assets and reorganize our company with a view to re-commencing new home construction in 2010. We do not foresee any recovery in the housing market that would prompt speculative home development in 2009,” Pattinson said.

So how did Barratt American find itself in this situation? While an economy with home sales at a trickle didn’t help matters, Pattinson said when Bank of America yanked its $125 million credit line in August 2007, that was the blow that staggered his firm. Pattinson was able to get about $70 million on that line when the bank balked.

Pulling credit lines and not renegotiating loans has become increasingly common in this economy. San Diego-based Innovative Communities was left in worse shape than Barratt after City National Bank refused to renegotiate a $15 million loan. Innovative is about to embark on a Chapter 7 liquidation proceeding. That company had about 5,500 residential lots in the Southland — most of which are outside of San Diego County.

The lenders in both cases have declined comment pending legal proceedings.

Pattinson and a group of partners purchased Barratt American for $165 million in 2004. The firm had been a customer of BofA for 27 years beginning in 1980 and had borrowed and repaid more than $1 billion until the bank created what Pattinson referred to as a “contrived default” in August 2007. That happened when the bank refused to extend loans at its Nantucket (in Leucadia) and Magnolia Estates (in Carlsbad) developments upon their bi-annual renewal dates. Barratt was then forced to stop construction on homes that were currently in escrow.

Over the next seven months, Pattinson said Barratt paid interest on a frozen bank line and paid down principal by $30 million in anticipation of the line’s renewal — going so far as to slow the company’s payments to its subcontractors.

When Barratt stopped paying interest, BofA commenced foreclosure proceedings on 11 properties around Southern California, representing about 1,300 lots from San Diego to Los Angeles. Seven of those properties are already gone and the remaining four are expected to be taken by BofA shortly.

Pattinson said he finds it particularly galling to watch the federal government bail out banks, including BofA, while the bank used its bailout money to purchase such troubled behemoths as Countrywide Mortgage and Merrill Lynch.

The 2,500-acre Fanita Ranch property in Santee, where about 1,400 homes are planned, that is owned by a separate Barratt-affiliated entity is not part of the bankruptcy proceedings. However, in October, Guaranty Bank of Los Angeles filed a notice that Fanita Ranch, L.P., a Barratt-affiliated entity, had defaulted on a $25 million loan. This debt reportedly comes to more than $27 million with interest.

Pattinson said he has lined up a new financial partner and he is working with Guaranty to renegotiate the Fanita note. He added that matters have been complicated due to ongoing environmental litigation involving the developer, a group known as Preserve Wild Santee and the city of Santee. With the building climate in particular, Santee officials including Mayor Randy Voepel, have openly wondered whether or not Barratt can still develop this property.

“I’m confident we’ll get this resolved,” Pattinson said.

Pattinson isn’t just sitting waiting for something to happen. As a result of this frustration, Pattinson and several other homebuilders, including Innovative Communities President Tom Dobron, formed a group called the Homebuilders Coalition for Economic Recovery to take on the banks by, among other things, lobbying for banking reform in Congress.

Since June, 154 builders nationwide have joined the coalition, including 70 from California. “Almost all builders report being the victims of contrived defaults and made to order appraisals as banks disengage themselves from residential lending and instead pursue builders for recovery and fulfillment of personal guarantees,” Pattinson said.

The goals of this consortium are multi-faceted. One goal for the coalition is to eventually create pools of unleveraged funds so homebuilders won’t have to rely on banks.

For now Pattinson’s company must just hang together. Barratt had 140 employees at its peak earlier in the decade, but is down to roughly 15 today. Dobron, who had to lay off some of his own children, let 85 employees go before calling it quits completely.

There is no question the banks hurt, but so has the economy. In San Diego County, home prices have dropped by as much as 40 percent within the past 18 months and the margins have evaporated. Dobron notes that home prices are what lot prices were a year and a half ago in Las Vegas where he has built many of his projects, and such a reality makes tract homebuilding all but impossible.

Pattinson said rebuilding homes destroyed by fire and custom homebuilding should keep him going, but concedes it could be a long time before Barratt returns to what it was.

From Zach at the NCT:

But Dan Schaldach, owner of D&S Construction in Escondido, said he sees it differently. His company has been framing houses for Barratt for years, he said.

“I think he (Pattinson) has been blaming other people for their mismanagement,” Schaldach said. “They had a pretty high lifestyle, and it caught up with them.”

His article:

http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/12/29/business/zbb246c7de6ad69e88825752e0077eeba.txt

BAM wondered about me feeling ‘less negative’ lately, and it’s true, I am optimistic about how 2009 is shaping up.

We noted the run of sales the few days before Christmas, and today Gary was having open house at an 1,200sf attached home within 100 ft. of the 76 freeway in Oceanside – and had eight couples attend, on what I’d consider to be the weekend of Christmas with a big Charger game later. Interest rates are low, mortgage quailfying isn’t as hard as you might think, overall inventory isn’t as high as I expected, and next year should produce substantially more REOs to sell. But number one is that prices are lower than they were last year, which is good for sales!

People want to buy real estate, and those who know the least are willing to pay the most – or at least more than you.  An astute buyer is a frustrated buyer; literally the more you know, the tougher it is to snag a good deal because the more-eager keep paying 5% more!

Part of our frustration as an agent was that we could make a living just working the MLS.  We’d pick off all the good buys the minute they’d hit the MLS and beat everyone else to them, convincing the seller and listing agent to hurry up and sign our offer. 

But now that most deals are bank-involved, either short sales or REOs, you can’t get a quick seller signature.  The banks are ‘processing’ incoming offers for 3-90 days, keeping the door open for additional buyers to pay more than you.  When you’re committed to not over-paying, it can be very frustrating.  I have buyers that have been looking for 6-12 months that aren’t much closer to buying a house today than they were a year ago.  There are no regrets – the market keeps coming our way.  But so do more buyers.

If you’re chasing bank-related listings on the MLS in 2009, then you’re probably going to be paying retail, or close to it – especially if you want a superior property, or you’re on the lower end of the price curve, where there’s plenty of cheap financing. There are just too many people chasing them.

Here are some examples of hot markets, where it is tough to get a great deal:

1. Anything decent in Carlsbad under $500,000 or 3,000sf under $800,000.
2. Encinitas/Olivenhain quality 3,000sf under $900,000.
3. Del Mar west of freeway quality 2,000sf under $1,000,000.
4. Carmel Valley 3,200sf around $1,000,000.
5. Coastal lots/land
6. Oceanside any decent SFRs under $200,000.
7. Vista Shadowridge 2,000sf SFRs under $400,000.

My goal in 2009 is to bring more unique product to my buyers.  Ocrenter mentioned the Arroyo Hondo sale - that house wasn’t on the open market, and neither was another I closed in Carmel Valley last quarter.  Being able to dig out these additional opportunities will hopefully give my buyers an edge in getting a decent deal with less hassle.

Wait as long as you want, but for those who think 2009 might be the year – I’m here for you!

Another 2009 goal is to do fewer of these:

Have you seen this yet?

http://www.aksalser.com/game.htm

This is not a political statement, it’s just a way to keep you on your toes!

(my high score was ten)

Here is a review of homes that have gone pending in the last ten days – we don’t know if they’ll close, and if so, at what price.

Wouldn’t you think that finding a buyer this month would be challenging, given:

1. Four inches of rain this month (most since 1984).

2. Tighter mortgage underwriting, fewer programs, higher jumbo rates.

3. Raging unemployment

4. Worst economic news of our lifetime – recession/depression news daily.

We don’t know the sales prices of these, so let’s put pricing aside for now and just consider what is being offered, and how long they’ve been on the market.  

Could the agents have noted them pending just to give the occupants a Christmas reprieve?  The new MLS reports the name of the buyer’s agent, and all but Jason are marked as being sold by agents from different companies - which probably indicates they are legitimate sales, and not just on a holiday break.

Carlsbad

Whitecap  MLS#080060285

3 br/2.5 ba, 1,700sf

YB: 1988 - 4,476sf lot - $100/mo fees

OLP: $640,000  8/28/08

LP: $600,000 11/22/08

Pending Date: 12/17/08

DOM = 111

Last two sales on street were both in July – $560,000 for 1,675sf with no view, and $660,000 for 1,766sf with ocean view (and freeway noise).  Original owners.

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Highland  MLS#080070885

3 br/2.5 ba, 2,551sf

YB:1961

17,850sf lot    (no monthly fees)

LP: $989,000  10/16/08

Pending date: 12/19/08

DOM = 65

Due-west view looking directly at power plant and smokestack.  Looks like original owners on tax rolls, interior photos reflect same.

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Corte Rosado  MLS#080070319

6 br/5.5 ba + granny flat  5,203sf

YB: 2001  - 25,000sf lot - $178/mo fees

OLP: $1,995,000 10/13/08

LP: $1,750,000  11/7/08

Pending Date 12/24/08

DOM = 72

The Ranch is Carlsbad has some of the best real estate in town, but no recent momentum.  The only two sales this year have been $1,150,000 and $1,475,000, and another is pending, listed at $1,187,500.  Original owners.

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Encinitas

E. Jason  MLS#080080463

3 br/2 ba, 1,062sf duplex

YB: 1959 – 6,969sf lot – no fees

OLP: $775,000  12/1/07

LP: $549,000-$599,000  12/1/08

Pending date: 12/23/08

DOM = 203

Off Vulcan and only about 100 yards east of the railroad tracks in Leucadia, this location would be considered ‘less-than-premium’.  The immediate neighbors around you are nothing fancy, mostly apartment-style homes, and it’s a long walk to the beach.  Could be a 1031 exchange?  Seller paid $199,000 in 1991.

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Spanish Bay  MLS#080077499

4 br/3.5 ba,  4,579sf

YB: 2003

10,128sf lot, $510/mo fees

LP: $1,995,000  11/15/08

Pending date: 12/17/08

DOM = 32

Former model home with ocean and golf views.  The seller paid $2,100,000 in July, 2005, so not much of a discount for buying at the peak.  The agent called it the best home and lot in Encinitas Ranch, but all I know is that I hit it with a golf ball a few years back.

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West RB (92127)

Rancho Catalina Trail  MLS#080062449

4 br/3.5 ba, 3,975sf

YB:2005

27,007sf lot – $715/mo. fees

LP: $1,050,000 – $1,200,000

Pending date: 12/18/08

DOM = 102

Seller is original owner who paid $1,191,500 in February, 2005.  For an area that has been in every bubblesitter’s sights as the next to fall, and for being under the power lines, she did pretty good – if it closes.

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7442 Rancho Cabrillo Trail MLS#080066755

5 br/5.5 ba, 5,118sf

YB: 2005 – 22,651sf lot – $821/mo. fees

OLP: $2,120,000  6/9/07

LP:  $1,249,000 – $1,399,000

SP: $1,249,000  12/23/08

DOM = 423

This short sale did just close this week, and noteworthy because it’s probably the worst location in the Mirasol tract, right next to the creaking gate with no view.  The agent called it highly upgraded, but I remember it as dark and needing work - and you can see the contractor’s truck in the driveway.  Seller had paid $1,451,000 in May, 2005.

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Carmel Valley

Foxhound  MLS#080082171

4 br/4 ba, 3,609sf

YB: 2000

8,476sf lot, $196/mo. fees

LP: 1,045,000 – $1,145,888  12/10/08

Pending Date 12/17/08

DOM = 7

Even though this backs right up to busy Carmel Mountain Rd., it blew off the market the first week.  Another original owner – paid $641,000 in 2000 and didn’t refi out a penny.  There have been very few decent 3,000+ sq. ft. homes in Carmel Valley sell under $1 million this year, and this one will probably close above $1.1 million.

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Pearlman MLS#080064011

4 br/5.5 ba 4,346sf

YB: 1998 – 8,450sf lot – 0 fees

OLP: $1,350,000  6/2/08

LP: $1,185,000  12/15/08

Pending date: 12/18/08

DOM = 169

Decent house for a foreclosure (former owner paid $1.45M in Jan.’06) but on a busy corner, with cars traveling 25-35 miles an hour.  One block from elementary school.

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Jordan Ridge  MLS#080064141

4 br/4 ba, 3,358sf

YB: 1994 – 7,156sf lot – $103/mo fees

OLP:$1,125,000  9/15/08

LP:  $1,079,000 – $1,124,876

Pending date: 12/23/08

DOM = 99

Standard CV offering, yet not much give on price – pending on December 23rd!

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Wyngate  MLS#080068068

4 br/4.5 ba, 4,008sf

YB: 1997 – 10,454sf lot – $158/mo. fees

OLP: $1,775,000 10/3/08

LP: $1,699,000  10/31/08

Pending date:  12/18/08

DOM = 77

Original owner (named Pardee) selling a premium location at end of culdesac with views of Fairbanks and a lot of extras.

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It’ll be easy to call these ‘knife-catchers’ and dismiss them as having very little significance, but I only include them because of the time of year and the negative environment.

Here’s a link to a map, the balloons don’t stick to the exact house, but are close:

cherrypickers

Fortune Magazine published their list of the 10 worst real estate markets for 2009, and San Diego was ranked #8.

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.worst_markets.fortune/8.html

Their sources were Moody’s Economy.com and N.A.R., so take it with a grain of salt.

In fact, take ALL prognostications with a grain of salt.

Today’s buyers are so discerning that they are buying only if they find a great house at a great price, and you can’t blame them. But if we saw a trend of closed sales that demonstrated ONLY ONE of those two, it could be a sign that the market is heating up.

In other words, if you saw a bunch of inferior homes close escrow, then you can figure that pressure might be building on the buyer side of the equation.

So keep an eye out for those quirky properties selling. If there is ever going to be some market stability, that’s one place where you could see it beginning.

Here’s an example of one that went pending this week, after 191 days on the market. It is 2,091sf listed on the range $718,888 to $748,888 (original list price $768,888):

You could say that selecting this property was cherry-picking, and of course it hasn’t closed yet either. Another house was mentioned in the beginning of the video on Sago in Carlsbad that has already fallen out of escrow, so we won’t belive it until we see ‘em closed.

If you are looking for a sign that the market might be improving, keep an eye on the eventual closed sales prices on those that seem like the ‘lucky pendings’. Later I’ll submit a host of others that went pending in the last 7-10 days that may leave you shaking your head.

How about sales in general?

There were more SD detached closed sales between 12/1 and 12/15 this year compared to 2007, but you can guess that it’s only those properties that are being given away that are closing:

Could the local real estate market heat up in 2009, in spite of the prognosticators? Common sense would say, “Not a chance”, but let’s keep our eyes and ears on the lookout, and see what happens.

Here are other indicators of a market that’s heating up (or not):

1. New listings going pending in the first three days of listing.

2. Properties going pending that have been on the market for a long time (4+ months), and closing.

3. Sales closing at or above list price (but check for possible seller credits).

There are a lot of uncertainties out there, so none of the indicators matters much until it’s a closed escrow.

The person with the camera said, “Jump up in the air, on three.  Ready? 1,2,3…”

(Pick out the non-dancer)

From our family to yours, Happy Holidays!