Thursday, October 30th, 2008 at 10:38 AM
October Pricing (part 1)
Readers asked to compare pricing too – let’s take a look! In 2006 the subprime mortgages were raging, and you could finance 100% of the purchase of a house up to $1,500,000. Now, getting a loan is much tougher, the stock market has tunred into casino royale, and the recession is here – what is the effect on pricing?
It varies by area – Carmel Valley is up 35%, Vista is down 46%!
Places like Oceanside and Vista where prices have dropped precipitously, the number of sales are strong – over 50 sales in each. Others, like Poway, are still enduring double-digit drops in sales and prices concurrently, giving the impression that more trouble is ahead.
# of Sales, Average Sales Price, October 2006 vs. October 2008
| Town of Area | Zip Code | # of Sales 06/08 | Avg. SP Oct. 06/Oct. 08 | $$ % chg |
| Carlsbad NW | 92008 | $694,204 / $579,390 | -17% | |
| Carlsbad SE | 92009 | $811,170 / $785,790 | -3% | |
| Carlsbad NE | 92010 | $588,777 / $522,000 | -11% | |
| Carlsbad SW | 92011 | $824,525 / $790,777 | -4% | |
| DM / SB | 14,75 | $1.345M / $2.232m | +66% | |
| Encinitas | 92024 | $975,836 / $884,535 | -9% | |
| La Jolla | 92037 | $1.851M / $1.675M | -10% | |
| Oceanside | 54-57 | $568,476 / $377,876 | -34% | |
| Poway | 92064 | $794,251 / $711,230 | -10% | |
| RSF | 92067 | $2.794M / $2.844M | +2% | |
| Vista | 818384 | $608,250 / $329,789 | -46% | |
| PB/MB | 92109 | $1.005M / $1.596M | +59% | |
| Univ. City | 92122 | $730,875 / $579,390 | -21% | |
| West RB | 92127 | $946,103 / $993,933 | +5% | |
| Carmel Vly | 92130 | $971,407 / $1.308M | +35% | |
| Scripps Rch | 92131 | $799,000 / $682,541 | -15% |
I’ll add the $/sf breakdown next.
Posted on Thursday, October 30th, 2008 at 10:38 AM in Monthly Sales, Monthly Sales Count | 4 Comments » | 
Print
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
Can we finally kill the CV 2001 Price Theory yet?
CVman | October 30th, 2008 at 2:16 pmGreat numbers, Jim. Thanks for all the work on it.
Another way to look at it:
Carmel Valley
2006 sales: 39 * $ 971,407 = 37,884,873
2008 sales: 24 * $1,308,000 = 31,392,000
Sales reduction of 17%
sdduuuude | October 30th, 2008 at 3:00 pmThis article in Fortune is rather sobering. If we (the U.S.) don’t borrow any more money to pay for the baby boomers, every household will owe nearly $4700 per year for the next 75 years!
Even when housing prices do finally level off, it’s very difficult to see them appreciating very much over the coming decades. I’m fairly convinced that this was a once-in-a-lifetime bubble for housing, and we could be headed on a steady deflation of that bubble for a long time to come…
http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/28/magazines/fortune/babyboomcrisis_walker.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008103010
“The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), noting that the federal balance sheet does not reflect the government’s huge unfunded promises in our nation’s social-insurance programs, estimated last year that the unfunded obligations for Medicare and Social Security alone totaled almost $41 trillion. That sum, equivalent to $352,000 per U.S. household, is the present-value shortfall between the growing cost of entitlements and the dedicated revenues intended to pay for them over the next 75 years.”
“Based on GAO data, balancing the budget in 2040 could require us to cut federal spending by 60% or raise overall federal tax burdens to twice today’s levels.”
E-leven | October 30th, 2008 at 4:03 pmIf everyone pays their $4700 this year, I’d be happy–at least it would be a start. But something tells me that some of us will be expected to pay $50,000 per year and others of us will be expected to zero–and, moreover, that the ones that pay nothing are the ones that are most likely to have incurred the expense, while the paying parties are those more likely to have been prudent in the past and productive in the future. Whichever shoe fits, feel free to wear it.
lgs | October 30th, 2008 at 6:07 pm