Tuesday, September 30th, 2008 at 4:35 PM
Credit Markets Frozen?
The third quarter of 2008 is wrapping up, and it turns out that it was the best quarter for closed sales since 2Q06, and the best 3rd quarter since 2005.
So far the MLS is showing 5,227 detached closings for 3Q08 – we’ll take the final number on November 1st to determine the winner of the two tickets to a Chargers’ game.
Here is the list of the contenders – once the late-reporters log their closings, it looks like it’ll come down to either moneymarket or mojo:
| Guess | Guesser |
| 1,500 | Coconutz |
| 2,422 | The Blur |
| 2,525 | FreedomCM |
| 2,666 | Gaswalla |
| 2,777 | Jane |
| 2,845 | Courtc2911 |
| 2,925 | Colleen |
| 3,000 | greenlander |
| 3,001 | Bill |
| 3,007 | Juliius |
| 3,025 | SantaFeHills |
| 3,200 | PoorHouse |
| 3,233 | mark-o |
| 3,254 | HereinCV |
| 3,275 | lbids |
| 3,300 | Sue |
| 3,305 | SurferNate |
| 3,350 | CB Mark |
| 3,375 | BigE |
| 3,395 | RSS |
| 3,430 | worm |
| 3,460 | Woodrow |
| 3,501 | timd |
| 3,502 | Genius |
| 3,546 | Renae |
| 3,562 | Jones |
| 3,587 | Horse Racing Man |
| 3,600 | CVMan |
| 3,645 | JMA |
| 3,650 | CVBidder |
| 3,675 | Timeye |
| 3,700 | Jim H. |
| 3,742 | Ericabiz |
| 3,752 | Noplantobuy |
| 3,756 | Just a Broker |
| 3,760 | ron |
| 3,768 | Stephen Waits |
| 3,838 | dejams |
| 3,850 | Angela |
| 3,901 | daleio |
| 3,924 | Matt |
| 3,925 | Bob |
| 3,942 | Keith Rettig |
| 3,995 | Ex-SD |
| 4,000 | David J. |
| 4,020 | 3mab |
| 4,065 | Dwip |
| 4,120 | jason |
| 4,150 | FirstTimerenter |
| 4,165 | arizonadude |
| 4,176 | Westparker |
| 4,200 | Simone |
| 4,222 | Pichon |
| 4,242 | Neil Diamond |
| 4,300 | dp |
| 4,343 | Mozart |
| 4,444 | bob o |
| 4,450 | CA renter |
| 4,886 | usanancy |
| 5,001 | mybleachhouse |
| 5,432 | moneymarket |
| 5,555 | mojo |
| 6,666 | damien |
| 7,000 | D Max |
SD County Detached-Home Sales by Quarter
| Year | 1stQtr | 2ndQtr | 3rdQtr |
| 1996 | 3,597 | 5,135 | 4,780 |
| 1997 | 4,021 | 5,556 | 5,892 |
| 1998 | 4,603 | 7,135 | 6,644 |
| 1999 | 5,394 | 7,252 | 7,033 |
| 2000 | 5,349 | 6,620 | 6,290 |
| 2001 | 4,951 | 6,358 | 6,696 |
| 2002 | 5,988 | 7,358 | 6,683 |
| 2003 | 5,576 | 7,371 | 8,518 |
| 2004 | 5,906 | 7,960 | 7,374 |
| 2005 | 5,465 | 7,726 | 7,029 |
| 2006 | 4,565 | 5,764 | 4,907 |
| 2007 | 3,964 | 4,896 | 3,876 |
| 2008 | 2,964 | 4,782 | ???? |
Posted on Tuesday, September 30th, 2008 at 4:35 PM in Contests | 11 Comments » | 
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After a two year look, I can attest – there were deals to be had this qtr. While we were unable to convince anyone in Coastal Carlsbad to be reasonable, we were able to find a serious seller in S.B. & closed a few days ago. We’re only one buyer and, as I’m sure Realtor Jim would agree, we sure weren’t easy to please. But, this opportunity worked for us & we’re pretty happy with it.
doug s. | September 30th, 2008 at 8:39 pmAsk me where the market’s going? I think we’ve got years of hard times ahead, but I don’t care – we bought a house & everyone’s got to live somewhere. Ask me why anyone would buy now, especially one who cashed at in 2005 & has waited so loooong? Simply because this deal worked for us. Ask me if the strain of being a renter just got too great? I say, maybe. As Jeff Goldbloom once lamented, we all like to rationalize. But, from the beginning we never waivered from our overarching objective – to find a house we wanted to live in in a neighborhood we wanted to live in at a price (<= 2002 levels) we were comfortable paying.
My advice to antsy fence-sitters is, remember what’s really important to you & especially your families & remain open to alternatives. We wanted a one story & settled for two. We wanted a smaller house & settled for a slightly larger one. We were hoping to find a finished product (or at the least, one priced too fairly for us to turn our backs on.)
Beyond that, I suggest all you earnest seekers of value, drop the cynicism. So what if Uncle Sam refuses to stop meddling, that’s life. So what if there are 20 sellers wasting your time to each serious seller you stumble upon. How do you expect to find that one? If you truly want to buy but are not up to working hard, very hard, I suggest you drop the charade & turn the hunt over to Realtor Jim. It’s obvious to me, because I kept bumping into him, he knows what he’s doing and equally obvious he works hard for his clients, whether they be sellers or buyers.
Lastly, best of luck to all you serious wannabee buyers in this very tough market.
I like your title, Jim: “Credit Markets Frozen?” In my view, the most fascinating thing about the current situation is that, while even stable businesses are starting to feel the credit squeeze, John Doe with 20% down can get an unbelievably low rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage, courtesy of the taxpayer. For heaven’s sake, think about it: mortgage loans are the worst performing credit category over the past few years, but they’re still offered for low, low rates, while loans for everything else (corporate, consumer, etc) are charged higher rates. Talk about a misallocation of resources. I never thought I would live the day when I could walk into a bank and get a 30-year loan for a rate lower than the same bank has to pay for 3-month LIBOR. Unbelievable!
Daniel | September 30th, 2008 at 10:37 pmThanks Doug for the acknowledgement – BTW, the plumber’s wife called to say your new house got redtagged for a gas leak, and they can’t help you. Hope it’s working out OK (?)
Daniel,
I’m with you – when CR posted the Wells Fargo jumbo rate of 9% the other day, my gut reaction was, “that’s where it should be”.
If there is an eventual trickledown of the bailout money, hopefully it’ll create additional mortgage lenders to loan again – but how happy will they be to lend if they can only fund at 6% to 7%??
The buying public is so used to rates under 7%, I don’t think it could go higher without causing a REAL credit freeze!
Jim the Realtor | September 30th, 2008 at 11:01 pmDoug,
Congratulations on your new purchase!
Is “SB” Solana Beach? Did you find the market there was softer than Cbd? Maybe we ought to start looking elsewhere, too. Sellers around here (So. Cbd and Enc) are still smoking crack. I’m watching as they sit and sit and sit, sometimes for the better part of a year, and refuse to acknowledge the market has changed.
CA renter | September 30th, 2008 at 11:17 pmJim. Yeah, that was a nice start, huh? Try to get the 1st (seemingly) most innocent act of home ownership out of the way – switching over utilities – & be told to go directly to the city for a permit! Oh well, as the saying goes, life happens. Love the house, neighborhood, mex. eateries, dog beach. It was a long search, but we’re home now.
doug s. | October 1st, 2008 at 7:06 amCA renter. Yes, it is. And, assuming you’re THE “CA renter”, I’ve been reading you for some time, thanks much for sharing your considerable efforts & insight.
Believe me, I’ve been through the Coaster C’bad wringer. So, I was floored when we found someone as far south as SB, especially on the west side of the 5, willing to consider our argument. But, you know a lot better than I do – this is one very strange r.e. market. Best of luck to you.
More stats on the alleged “credit markets are frozen”.
Let’s check the last two weeks.
So far the MLS is showing 1,392 closings of attached and detached between 9/15/08 and 9/30/08. Once the late-reporters chime in, it’ll be closer to 1,500.
Last year there was the big meltdown in August, and you can see it reflected in the closings of last two weeks of September – there were only 826.
In the last two weeks of 2006 there were 1,393, almost identical to today’s number.
In the last two weeks of 2005 there were 2,141 closings – back when we were still on the full tilt boogie.
This recent so-called credit crisis hasn’t slowed mortgage fundings, judging by these stats. You can still get a mortgage, as long as you qualify and have a down payment.
For those who thought income-qualifying and needing a down payment could tube the market, it hasn’t yet. There are just as many people buying today as two years ago when money was still free and easy.
Jim the Realtor | October 1st, 2008 at 9:25 amDoug – congrats! I’m just finishing up my second month of home ownership and couldn’t be happier. My situation is almost identical to yours, minus the 2005 cash in (sadly). My wife and I searched for six months for the perfect home in the perfect area and at a reasonable price, and we finally found it – just like you. Your post looks just like the one I wrote right after closing.
Anonymous | October 1st, 2008 at 10:22 amWoops, sorry, didn’t realize that I didn’t sign the above comment properly.
Kwaping | October 1st, 2008 at 1:24 pmSee, there are plenty of buyers and the market is very healthy! The only difference is you have to qualify. There is nothing wrong in that.
Thank you for the kind words, Doug.
CA renter | October 1st, 2008 at 2:46 pmOT: CA renter, do you have your own blog? I’m curious about Doug’s “THE” comment.
Kwaping | October 2nd, 2008 at 8:56 amLOL! No, don’t have my own blog, but am one of the “old” posters on many of the housing/economic blogs going back to about 2003. Though I can be wrong at any time, my predictions have been pretty good over the years, as I’ve been studying the housing/credit cycles for years. Not sure if that’s what he was referring to, but his comment was very kind.
CA renter | October 2nd, 2008 at 3:44 pm