Friday, June 27th, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Massive Squishdown
There were more quotes in the Kelly’s article at the Voice of SD about the market getting hammered statistically: Link to Article
How bad are the stats?
The numbers are skewing from all the action on the lower-end:
# of Total Listings Jan 1 to June 27 in SD County (Att & Det):
| Price Range | 2007 | 2008 | % chg |
| 0-350K | 8824 | 14610 | +66% |
| 350-700K | 21729 | 13470 | -38% |
| 700K+ | 8789 | 6473 | -26% |
| Total | 39342 | 34553 | -12% |
Once you get into the closed sales, you really see it. Here are the closings between May 1st and June 15th:
| Price Range   | 2007   | 2008   | % chg |
| 0-350K | 694 | 1570 | +125% |
| 350-700K | 2042 | 1446 | -29% |
| 700K+ | 967 | 528 | -45% |
| Total | 3703 | 3544 | -4% |
You’ll be hearing about how sales aren’t that bad compared to last year, but it depends what segment of the market you are looking at – more later today!
Posted on Friday, June 27th, 2008 at 3:54 PM in Statistical analysis | 21 Comments » | 
Print
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
The problem with being one of the "lucky" ones in the sub $350k market is that you probably bought in the $350k-$700k+ markets.
Who walks the stair without a care
It shoots so high in the sky.
Bounce up and down just like a clown.
Everyone knows its Slinky.
The best present yet to give or get
The kids will all want to try.
The hit of the day when you’re ready to play
Everyone knows it’s Slinky.
It’s Slinky, It’s Slinky
Rob Dawg | June 27th, 2008 at 8:19 pmfor fun it’s the best of the toys
It’s Slinky, It’s Slinky
the favorite of girls and boys.
Quick data point:
I made a cash bid on a property at about 70% of the asking price (1.4 million). This is a bank owned property (CW).
After waiting a week for a response they came back with 1.325 and said they were going to lower it by 75K every 30-45 days.
The property need about 5K in repairs to make it livable and probably about 50K to clean it up nicely. It also comes with a 1K/month HOA.
There are about 13 other similar properties for sale, although they are all asking about the same amount. None have sold in about a year.
I really would like to get the place, but I am not going to be in the market in Dec and I am not going to buy something that I can only turn around and sell for a loss (although I intend to live in the property for many years).
I really think this company should be dissolved and all the assets sold at auction.
daveg | June 27th, 2008 at 8:52 pm"Once you get into the closed sales, you really see it. Here are the closings between May 1st and June 15th"
Did you mean closings betwee Jan 1 and June 15?
NC | June 27th, 2008 at 9:09 pmWhat rolls down stairs alone or in pairs
Genius | June 27th, 2008 at 9:56 pmRolls over your neighbor’s dog?
What’s great for a snack and fits on your back?
It’s Log, Log, Log!
It’s Log, Log, it’s big, it’s heavy, it’s wood.
It’s Log, Log, it’s better than bad, it’s good!
Everyone wants a log! You’re gonna love it, Log!
Come on and get your log! Everyone needs a Log!
Second set of numbers was closings from May 1 to June 15. First set of numbers was YTD listings.
Frank Jewett | June 27th, 2008 at 9:59 pmThanks Frank.
I wanted to show the most recent closed-sales activity.
Jim the Realtor | June 27th, 2008 at 10:06 pmFive points.
1) Edward Mracek (a Realtor with Willis Allen in La Jolla): "…This year’s definitely doing better than last year."
2) Recent closings in $700K+ properties: -45%
3) Edward Mracek is having some sort of LSD flashback.
4) Rob Dawg (a poster on bubbleinfo.com): "It’s Slinky, It’s Slinky/for fun it’s the best of the toys/It’s Slinky, It’s Slinky/the favorite of girls and boys."
5) Rob Dawg is having some sort of LSD flashback too.
Dwip | June 28th, 2008 at 12:00 amOT:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Jolla/5810-Soledad-Mtn-92037/home/4940638
Is there something wrong with this house? It’s priced WAY under everything else around it. I guess I may find my way into The Jewel yet.
Genius | June 28th, 2008 at 2:26 amThere was a massive sink hole in that neighborhood not too long ago. I’d be a little scared to buy there.
jason | June 28th, 2008 at 3:52 amWhat are the confidential remarks, I’m curious.
pipes | June 28th, 2008 at 4:46 amConf Rmks:
"Short Sale and commissions subject to lender approval. Any reduction in commissions to be split 50%/50%. First showing July 3rd 12-2PM, NO OTHER TIMES. Do Not Disturb any other time. Seller is agent."
The loan amount from 2006 is $892,500 – the list price may be optimistic and could be artificially low to attract more attention. The street is pretty busy too. They paid $293,000 in 1996.
Jim the Realtor | June 28th, 2008 at 5:13 amOK, so a short sale that is not disclosed as a short sale to the public. Sneaky!
calwatch | June 28th, 2008 at 6:51 amthey forgot to include this photo in the listing:
now_a_renter | June 28th, 2008 at 6:57 amhttp://www.daylife.com/photo/08kF97kdQMdT3
The guy is short selling his bank and expects them to take a loss and he is still charging a commission? T’were I the bank I would reject any offer that gave this guy any reverse cashback at close.
Rob Dawg | June 28th, 2008 at 1:19 pmThere are tons of realtors who are short-selling. Their incomes have been among the most-affected, they had easy access to the most exotic financing, and it’s usually their only listing – as long as they have a listing, they’re still in business.
They list with somebody else in the office so it isn’t so obvious to the bank – that’s what happened on this La Jolla house. I just closed one where the seller/agent did the same thing, and he got a $20K pop out of it at the end.
Jim the Realtor | June 28th, 2008 at 2:03 pmJim, I’m not surprised. Saddened but not surprised. Take solace in the fact that you are not being painted with this brush. People know an honest straight shooter when they meet one.
Rob Dawg | June 28th, 2008 at 2:40 pmSpeaking of other realtors, I got assigned a new REO listing that is occupied by the ex-realtor who sold it – to her parents. She had the parents cash-out refi enough dough to buy two other houses, and are now losing all three.
The ex-realtor now works at McDonald’s. Literally.
Jim the Realtor | June 28th, 2008 at 3:32 pmGenius, that Soledad Mtn Road property is currently behind the police/road barriers put there to keep people away from the sinkhole. So it must be within a block or two of the action.
Dwip | June 28th, 2008 at 4:23 pmJim, It’s basic to our system that business people speak only to what is in their best interest. It’s been pretty clear to me for some time, anyone buying a home these days should love the house & neighborhood they’re buying into AND be prepared to live there for at least ten years.
doug s. | June 28th, 2008 at 4:35 pmThanks for helping make sense of the data, for sharing your time-tested perspective, and for your continued commitment to being the consumate pro – an honest Broker who’s there to facilitate the best deal for his clients, whether they be sellers or buyers!.
Wow, thanks for all of the responses. I was unaware there was a sinkhole.
The same thing happened in santa monica, near where I work, about 4 years ago.
Genius | June 28th, 2008 at 11:46 pmWow, that La Jolla home’s description "This home will not last!!!" really takes on a whole different tone when you consider the sinkhole situation. Not that it’s in actual danger, just not the kind of wording you want to use there..
It sounds like a lot of people are taking advantage of the "debt forgiveness" of foreclosure. Kind of like maxing out your credit cards right before a bankruptcy – to buy something you can sell for cash. Or doing a heloc right before a foreclosure and converting it to cash. Or..like getting a commission on a short sale of your own house.
There needs to be an easier way for banks to sue for deficiencies when the seller definitely has the money and is just waving it in their face. We’re in an age when thousands of people can trash their house after foreclosure, and just the few who are caught on camera or snitched by their neighbors face consequences.
BDiego | June 29th, 2008 at 10:05 pm