Tuesday, May 27th, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Mixed Messages
The real estate market seems to be in turmoil, with foreclosures news dominating the headlines. The local statistics aren’t real promising either, when comparing to last year:
Detached and Attached Listings, Jan. 1 through May 25
Total Listings
2007 = 31,791
2008 = 28,301
diff = -11%
Total Closed Sales
2007 = 10,818
2008 = 8,550
diff = -21%
Though the number of listings are lower than last year, the sales have been dropping faster. The motivation this year seems to be higher too – of this year’s listings, 44% are vacant, compared to 39% last year. The foreclosure business is cranking too, as you can imagine. The same four foreclosure agents we’ve followed have closed 548 sales this year, compared to 256 in the same time frame last year – an increase of 114%.
But are there areas surviving, and if so, for how long? Can they continue to beat the odds? Look at these examples of houses that have gone pending this month, and you decide. The recent sales in area are listed first, then the list price of the pendings:
7898 Sitio Abeto, La Costa Valley
4 br/3.5 ba, 2,722 sf
$900,000 SP same floor plan, 12/07
$1,175,000 LP – PEND
14 days on market
There are TWO single-story 2,915 sf floor plans for sale nearby of K. Hovnanian homes. They are listed for $929,000 and $959,000! Yet this Davidson-built house blows out within the first two weeks – was it the white picket fence?
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7496 Circulo Sequoia, La Costa Oaks
4 br/4.5 ba 3,994 sf
$925,000 SP same model 1/08
$975,000 SP bigger model 5/08
$1,249,000 LP – PEND
17 days on market
Sure the $975,000 was a short sale and backed to power lines, and took almost a year to sell. But it just closed, doesn’t that have an impact on the buyer here? This one is further up the hill so there is some ocean view, and it doesn’t back to power lines, but 28% higher?
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10628 Senda Acuario, Torrey Hills (CV)
5 br/2.5 ba, 3,275 sf
$1,125,000 SP same model 1/08
$1.15 to $1.25 million LP – PEND
50 days on market
These both back to a busier street, and are only three doors apart – yet appear to be holding value this year. I sold the same floor plan last summer for $1,200,000 that backed to a canyon, could this one close higher? Hard to believe!
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13355 Winstanley, Carmel Valley
5 br/4 ba, 3,124 sf
$1,250,000 SP two blocks away 3/08
$1,399,000 LP – PEND
28 days on market
Remember the 3,900 sf ‘Niagara Falls’ house, the one with the big waterfall in the backyard? It closed in March literally two blocks away, and on a culdesac. This REO on Winstanley only had a mortgage around $1 million, yet the owner went down with the ship. Citigroup listed for more, even though it’s on a busier stretch of Winstanley with no canyon or view - we’ll see what it closes for!
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5436 Valerio Trail, Carmel Valley
5 br/4.5 ba 3,922 sf
$1,200,000 SP of only two solds this year
$1,699,000 LP – PEND
0 days on market
OK, so the listing agent found the buyer – just a fluke, right? Nope, two other went pending this month too! One of the 3,377 sf plans is in escrow listed at $1,540,000, and a 3,736 sf plan listed for $1,550,000. There are still seven listed for sale too!
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12804 Toyon Mesa
5 br/5.5 ba, 4,982 sf
$1,625,000 SP for 4,979 sf Cam. Stella
$1,775,000 SP for 5,417 sf Mesa Norte
$2,200,000 to $2,349,000 LP – PEND
43 days on market
Many thought the two foreclosures in Del Mar Mesa might set back the pricing of those that followed this year, but this one is bucking that trend. It has a nice pool and spa, but is only on a .41-acre lot.
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You can say these haven’t closed yet, and it’s just cherry-picking, but in selected areas there have been a number of these this month that have gone pending at high list prices. We’ll keep an eye on them to see how they turn out!
Posted on Tuesday, May 27th, 2008 at 10:02 PM in Thinking of Buying? | 16 Comments » | 
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Pending doesn’t mean that they actually went pending for that price. We won’t know what’s happening until after they show as sold.
Simone | May 28th, 2008 at 1:37 amValerio Trail is an amazing case study in today’s market. All the signs for a blow up are there, but nobody has stepped on a land mine yet. There are plenty of warning signs for buyers/sellers so you would guess the sellers might be taking any offer in order to seal the deal before the neighbors undercut. Either way, the current strength there is simply fantastic even with a lot of warning signs.
There are several signs of imminent danger:
New actives popping up after every close.
The street is so narrow there are no sidewalks or parking. It is probably private because it does not meet city width specs.
HOAs of $115 per month plus MRs of $180 per month.
5492 – 3922 Sf; leased at $5500/mo in April; so that puts a cash flow b/e near $900k at 6.5% excluding unearned interest on the downpay
5448 – 3922 Sf; has been listed for over a year with a couple price reductions; Last sale in 05 was 1825k plus another $100k in upgrades; Now listed at 1695k; was also for lease at 10k/month; It is empty and unless the last buyer put > 17.5% down, there is zero equity at the current list and this is a potential jingle mail.
5487 – 3377Sf; Short sale listed at 1000k to 1,150k for several months with no sale yet
5448 – Assessed value of the land only is $1,071,000 for 0.25 acres. So 1 empty acre in 92130 is worth $4m ? Has anyone ever checked to see what one acre is RSF gets you including a beautiful 4k SF house ? Most likely in RSF there are not 10 neighbors’ balcony on either side of your backyard that can see into your yard.
A couple of "for sale or for lease" have either been leased or have been taken off the market until conditions improve since the start of 2008 (5444 and 5492). So seems like every other owner wants to sell.
Finally, some potential buyers have kids that need to go to middle school. They will asked to drive to Earl Warren in Solana Beach due to overcrowding at the CV middle school.
Plus the CME futures took a big drop today for Aug08, Nov08, and Feb09 after the May08s closed. Will be interesting to see what the banks are willing to loan on these properties.
FuturesWatcher | May 28th, 2008 at 6:01 amJim, sorry, but I think your giving mixed messages on this one! Thanks for the post FuturesWatcher, you give the true context in Santa Barbara. As for Toyon Mesa, the proper comps are in Bougainvillea itself. Last sale of that model was $2.5M. Paso Fino doesn’t compare well. We’ll see what this one actually closes for before we come to any comclusions. BTW, there are fast growing # of NOD’s in high-end CV areas, including Promontory, Private Collection, Vista Santa Barbara, Meadows Del Mar, Santa Rosa, and Triple Crown right now. What do you think this portends?
CV Watcher | May 28th, 2008 at 2:14 pmIn the last two weeks in Cardiff:
(1) sale;
2,452 sf for $1.48MM on 5/18, detached.
(3) pendings;
1.) $1.20MM, 1,200 sf on 5/25, detached.
2.) $1.18MM, 1,250 sf on 5/23, attached.
3.) $1.19MM, 2,250 sf on 5/16, attached.
I’m definitely an optimist and clearly the other entries here indicate a depth of knowledge regarding CV but it seems like the anticipated crashing of the upper end may not take place.
Mozart | May 28th, 2008 at 3:12 pmI’m VERY curious what the Sitio Abeto home ended up selling for, as I was looking at this home a year ago. Yes, it wasn’t technically on the market then, but the owner had it ‘unofficially’ for sale for over a year (i.e., realtors were welcome to bring potential buyers over to look at it, but he didn’t want it on the MLS). The asking price was the same a year ago, and we bailed since this price seemed way out of line with comparable comps.
As a FYI, the house itself was in very good condition – they had obviously put a LOT of money into it. But the upgrades weren’t things our family cared about (crown molding, pull-out shelving, outdoor heaters, imported flooring created from antique barn wood(?), etc.).
My best guess is that they either found someone who valued the same things they did, or someone bought it because of the location (it is at the very end of a long family-friendly culdesac). The fact that the house next door sold for a record 1.4 million probably didn’t hurt either (we were discussing that sale a few months ago).
Anyway, if the seller DID sell for around 1.2Mil – I wish him the best. But it wasn’t worth anywhere near that price to me.
P.S. – I ended up buying the short sale on 7929 Sitio Abridor for $879k. In your opinion, did I overpay? (we chose it because it has a large yard). Curious what your thoughts are.
Recent LV Buyer | May 28th, 2008 at 3:45 pmMozart, you can’t exclude the possiblity of something happening just because it hasn’t happened yet. Two years ago the mantra was housing can never go down because it has never gone done on a national scale.
mattK | May 28th, 2008 at 3:48 pm"Two years ago the mantra was housing can never go down because it has never gone done on a national scale."
Wow, did people really believe that?
What difference does it make whether housing on a national scale has never gone down when housing in California has been going up *and* down for the past 40 years or so?
GeneK | May 28th, 2008 at 3:58 pmInteresting numbers. How about a look at the CV condo/townhouse market?
CVman | May 28th, 2008 at 4:20 pmJim, just how much do you trust the MLS inventory bottom line? We hear the banks have lots of REO not in the MLS. Above we hear about unofficially for sale. Dawg knows how many just waiting for the market to turn before listing. I’d also add the number of new for sale that put two or three in the MLS but the sales office has dozen from which to choose.
Rob Dawg | May 28th, 2008 at 4:38 pmThe LCV home was a Davidson Model, overpriced from the start with lots of glue-on "builder upgrades". I wouldn’t forget that picket fence and the value it added for resale.
doughboy | May 28th, 2008 at 5:34 pmCV Watcher,
I’m just the messenger, aren’t I? Just saying it’s interesting to see these pendings happening, especially in light of the many unsolds around. Speaking of Bougainvillea, a new 3,928 sf listing came up on Toyon Mesa at $1.95 million – we’ll see how it does too.
Jim the Realtor | May 28th, 2008 at 6:32 pmSitio Abeto is not a Davidson model, Doughboy. Models were on Camino Serbal.
JM | May 28th, 2008 at 6:32 pman insider says the pending on Toyon Mesa will close for around 2.175
gaswalla | May 28th, 2008 at 6:36 pmLOL, not trying to shoot the messenger Jim, I just much prefer looking at "Closed" rather than "Pending". Last sale in Bougainvillea of a 3,928 sq. ft. went for $1.85M. See:
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081015098-6621_Santolina_Ct_San_Diego_CA_92130
This was 4% higher than it sold in 2006. Will be interesting to see what the new Toyon Mesa listing goes for. It is on a better lot than the Santolina comparable….
CV Watcher | May 28th, 2008 at 7:38 pm"Wow, did people really believe that?"
Indeed. Now there are people who somehow believe the high end is immune…
Genius | May 28th, 2008 at 8:28 pmSo, how many have already fell out of pending? I noticed Circulo Sequoia has been relisted.
Chester | May 30th, 2008 at 3:57 pm