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Sunday, April 27th, 2008 at 12:57 PM

Actives/Pendings Comparison

While it seems like there has been an upsurge in activity lately, is it extraordinary, or ordinary? How does the active/pending ratio compare to last year?

Here is a look at the actual counts, and the actives-divided-by-pendings number from May 22, 2007 compared to April 27, 2008:

Town or Area   Zip Code   A/P – 07   A/P – 08   May 07   Apr 08
Cbad NW 92008 99/23 98/27 4.30 3.63
C-bad SE 92009 184/63 223/60 2.92 3.72
C-bad NE 92010 52/19 57/14 2.73 4.07
C-bad NW 92011 117/36 145/19 3.25 7.63
O-side W 92054 223/45 216/45 4.96 4.80
O-side SE 92056 249/49 276/66 5.08 4.18
O-side NE 92057 359/66 335/109 5.44 3.07
San Mrcs N 92069 220/37 205/74 5.95 2.77
San Mrcs S 92078 240/60 228/67 4.00 3.40
Carmel Vly 92130 152/70 182/63 2.17 2.89
Total Above 2,159/506 2,214/579 4.27 3.82

The 506 pendings from 2007 were the actual pendings, not sure how many closed – but it’s likely that the 2008 fall-out ratio will be higher than last year. Buyers are more confident than ever, and if the house doesn’t check out perfectly, or if the sellers don’t compensate for repairs, it’s not going to close – unless the price is very attractive. That said, it looks like a slight improvement over last year – we’ll see how it looks around the third week of May.

The hype machines will be running rampant over the next few months, examine the details very carefully!

Posted on Sunday, April 27th, 2008 at 12:57 PM in Actives/Pendings | 5 Comments » | Print Print You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Reader Comments: 5 Responses

  1. the two areas "most improved" are two areas that got hit the worse, San Marcos north and O-side NE, both have seen significant price drops.

    if you drop the price low enough, they will come!

    ocrenter | April 28th, 2008 at 2:05 pm

  2. jim, would love to see some 4S 92127 data. =)

    ocrenter | April 28th, 2008 at 2:06 pm

  3. Looks to me like the pain train just left the 78 corridor and is now heading down the coast. Numbers along 78 are better than 07. Down the 5 corridor they are worse.

    jb | April 28th, 2008 at 5:07 pm

  4. jb, good observation. Do you think that is because "5" is still overpriced or the "78" is more affordable?

    joe renter | April 28th, 2008 at 10:35 pm

  5. Sounds good to me, joe.

    It’s kinda the slinky effect (used to be known as the domino effect back when we wore onions from our belt) that has been discussed here.

    It looks like people have been buying what they perceive as a great value. Since the coast has just started to drop, buyers aren’t biting as hard there.

    jb | April 29th, 2008 at 1:15 am

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