Tuesday, February 26th, 2008 at 3:09 PM

Same-House Sales Enc/CV

More February sales of homes whose previous sale had been since 2004 – how are prices doing?  Encinitas first, then Carmel Valley and Del Mar, and 92127 at the end:

vg.jpg174 Village Run E.

3 br/2 ba,   1,212 sf

$625,000  2/06

$539,900  OLP

$521,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 14 days

Former owner financed 100%, which probably had his PITI payments close to $4,500 per month for this 1,200 square footer.  Things didn’t work out, and this ended up an REO, though still not down to ’03 prices – this sold for $440,000 in June, 2003.

YB: 1972,  HOA = $22, MR = 0

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fe.jpg1525 Flair Encinitas

3 br/3 ba,  1,724 sf

$715,000  2/05

$599,000 OLP

$530,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 72 days

Another REO and a nice buy in a gated community in the heart of Encinitas, but these lots are tiny - so small that listing agents rarely publicize their size.  This lot is 3,706 sf.

YB: 1985,  HOA = $85, MP = 0

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vv.jpg1213 Village View

4 br/3 ba,  2,394 sf

$835,500  2/05

$940,000  OLP

$850,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 113

The remarks said "thoroughly upgraded" with slate, hickory hardwood floors and tasteful custom paint.  Decent-sized yard too, the lot was 9,147 sf.

YB:  1990,  HOA = $20,  MR = 0

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crch.jpg540 Cole Ranch

3 br/2 ba,  1,248 sf

$980,000  2/06

$1,199,000 OLP

$920,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 65 days

A starter home for Olivenhain, with an old house and smaller (for O-hain) 11,761 sf lot.  The sales history brings back memories – $887,000 in December, 2004, and $628,000 in January 2004.

YB: 1968,  HOA & MR = 0

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rt.jpg273 Rain Tree

5 br/4 ba  2,826 sf

$1,300,000  11/05

$1,449,000  OLP

$1,250,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 189

In late summer I asked the first listing agent if the seller might take an offer in the 1,200,000s – she cussed and screamed, and then hung up on me.  Will they ever learn?

YB: 2003,  HOA & MR = 0

********************CV******************92130*********

moon.jpg13500 Moonflower Mdws

4 br/3 ba,  2,056 sf

$804,000  10/05

$795-$839K  OLP

$795,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 6 days

Interesting comps nearby – the 2,o07 sf REO next door closed in September for $679,000, and the 2,304 sf house across the street clsoed for $815,000 in November.

YB:  2005, HOA = $210, MR = $221

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ash.jpg5035 Ashley Falls

5 br/3.5 ba,  3,028 sf

$1,256,000  6/04

$1,250,000  OLP

$1,180,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 18 days

Large, flat yard with views, culdesac location.  If every seller would do this, they’d be OK – price it about where you paid for it a couple of years ago, not 10-20% higher.

YB: 1996, HOA = $0, MR = $104

*****************************************92127************

pds.jpg15817 Paseo Del Sur

4 br/3 ba,  2,781 sf

$713,900 OLP

$718,900 raised price

$680,900 SP 2/08

DOM – 116

This is the Cabrillo model home in Del Sur – do you think it’s a good idea to buy in an early phase of a new tract?  Take a look at these – granted, these could be in better locations, but doubt that they had more upgrades than the model: previous sales of same floor plan:  $800,000 in 2/07,   $853,000 in 10/06,   $887,000 in 10/06.

YB: 2007  HOA = $142, MR = $473

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cst.jpg15009 Cross Stone

4 br/3 ba,  3,072 sf

$687,000  2/04

$797,888  OLP

$780,000  2/08

DOM – 10 days

Former model home – an example of how the market was still ascending in early 2004. Not many are breaking even in 92127 who bought after the summer of 2004.

YB: 2004,  HOA = $249, MR = $572

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fugly.jpg14216  Cmto. Lazanja

5 br/4.5 ba,  4,259 sf

$1,545,000  4/05

$1,350,000 OLP

$1,327,500  SP 2/08

DOM – 29 days

MLS remarks:

"REO. Huge lot. Very Upgraded. Banks wants to sell AS IS.  Granite, travertine, great floorplan. Not a typical REO."

YB: 2005, HOA = $425, MR = $625

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mirasol.jpg7431 Rancho CabrilloTrl

4 br/4.5 ba,  4,572 sf

$1,583,000  4/05

$1,795,000  OLP

$1,475,000  SP 2/08

DOM – 102 days

Seller was agent – have you noticed that agents seem to list their own houses a lot higher than they should?  Been like that since the beginning of time.

YB: 2005  HOA = $249, MR = $572

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Case-Shiller is out for December, what can we expect for January?  Based on the number of sales of detached homes in SD County, probably more of the same.  Here are the January closed sales, and the percentage difference from the previous year:

2004 – 1,648

2005 – 1,615  (-2%)

2006 – 1,265  (-22%)

2007 – 1,149  (-9%)

2008 -    890  (-23%)

Reader Comments: 12 Responses

  1. Re: """ In late summer I asked the first listing agent if the seller might take an offer in the 1,200,000s – she cussed and screamed, and then hung up on me. Will they ever learn? """

    JTR – please forgive me but most realtors are ASSHOLES!!!!!!!!!

  2. I assume you called her the "first listing agent" because she was no longer the agent when it came time to be paid. So, you get a teeny tiny piece of satisfaction for your grief.

    Informal pol: which gender is better at cussing/screaming hissy fits? IME, it is usually the "fairer sex" …

  3. These sale prices are still a long way from break even as rentals even assuming 20% down and interest rates below 6.0%. If anyone can come up with a reasonable explanation why the price floor will be significantly higher than rental investment value, given the current economic trends, I’m listening.

  4. It seems to me to be short-sighted to cuss out another realtor on the phone unless they are really, truly, utterly obnoxious. (And making a polite offer asking if they’d take 9% of the asking price isn’t in that category.) The world of realtors is a small one, and you certainly don’t want a reputation of being a pain in the ass.

  5. Informal pol: which gender is better at cussing/screaming hissy fits? IME, it is usually the "fairer sex" …

    LOL! There’s a Realtorette on the Ventura County Star (newspaper) blogs right now ripping loose with invectives to make a sailor blush. The Star has about 6 different housing doom articles in today’s paper BTW.

  6. JE,
    I can’t…..

  7. Mr. Dawg,

    "There’s a Realtorette on the Ventura County Star (newspaper) blogs right now ripping loose with invectives to make a sailor blush."

    Sorry to be lazy, but can you provide a link? I love it when a (lady) realtor talks dirty (to me).

  8. In 92127, HOA + MR > 500 or even > 1000!
    To me, it is way too crazy!

    Is there anyone know what buyers were thinking?

  9. Geez, and I thought my $192 MR and no HOA was bad…

  10. Check out Ms.p.oherlihy as she loses it entirely at:
    Ventura Star article-blog

  11. JE,

    10-20% higher than rental investment value, for two reasons.

    1. Tax deductibility.
    2. The antsy/frustrated buyers will jump in sooner.

    Rents are pretty high now, if you ask me. Most of these folks ditching their McMansions have to pay $3,000+ for rent, even with a downgrade in lifestyle.

    But if you remember back to 1995 when we had houses in Carlsbad under $200,000, they were still a tough sell.

    The psychology of the buyers is a critical factor, as important as affordability.

  12. JtR,

    Thanks for the reply, within 10-20% rental value sounds reasonable. It will be interesting to see where SFR rents in these areas ends up in the next year.

    I expect the difference in the price/sqft for the McMansion vs 1600-1800 sqft homes to deviate considerably for both sale price and rentals. Luxury is losing out to practicality/affordability as everyone tightens the belt. I think this is already being reflected in median vs price/sqft stats that are posted on piggington site and may be skewing your observations of 1 story house demand.

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