Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 4:32 AM
Pacesetters Deluxe
CA renter has made an important point here a number of times – the power of substitution. When better values nearby get so appealing that buyers are willing to compromise on location, it can drag down demand, and values, in nearby higher-priced areas.
Consider the following Oceanside active (unsold) listings:
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342 La Soledad
5 br/3 ba, 3,103 sf
$637,500 loan 10/06
$449,000 today’s LP
REO
Looking at this, I guess the lenders quit caring about the comps – the last model-match sale was in November for $580,000. The HOA fee is $110 per month, and no Mello-Roos in this newer (built in 2002) home in a decent part of town. You don’t get much yard, and only a two-car garage, but what do you want for $145/sf?
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1049 Boulder
5 br/3 ba, 3,533 sf
$663,500 7/06 last SP
$489,900 today’s LP
REO
We’ve seen this one before, the original buyer put 20% down and then refinanced all of it out with Citibank within the first 45 days of ownership – but before the new second loan was even closed she already had it back on the market for $749,995 – the classic flop.
But at least she did a better job with the pictures – the REO agent makes it clear what one of the problems is, look at the funky behind-the-back 2-car garage. The 1.75% tax rate probably doesn’t help either. Today’s list price? $139 per sf.
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1166 Midnight Way
4 br/3 ba, 3,000 sf
$705,000 4/06 SP
$500-$550,000 LP
144 days on market
You’d think that if you were the agent who has taken responsibility for helping the seller out of a jamb, that you could find a way to get a few pictures into the MLS by now. Not only has the agent forgot all about inputting some pics, I wonder if he’s even talked to the seller in a while – because the owner got foreclosed on three weeks ago, yet this still shows as an active listing. BTW, the tax rolls show 2,749 sf – the REO agent will probably list it under $450,000 shortly.
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4959 Marin
5 br/3.5 ba, 3,253 sf
$860,000 10/06 SP
$549,900 today’s LP
REO
$169 /sf
Comps don’t matter much here either – model-match sales for $650,000 in August and $610,000 on December 27th haven’t been enough to get this sold. The HOA fee is $110 per month and no Mello-Roos on this 1990-built home, and it’s in a nice area near Shadowridge.
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1062 Straightaway
5 br/4.5 ba, 4,461 sf
$1,002,500 3/06 SP
$599-$669,888 LP
loan is $750K
This is one of those big bombers in Arrowood near the golf course. It has views, big lot, culdesac location – what else do you need? Just overlook the $105/month HOA fee and the $4,800 per year Mello-Roos, and it’s not a bad deal. The seller has gone through four agents while trying to sell since December, 2006, when he started at $1,040,000 – now hopefully the price is right, or close, at $142/sf.
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If you have been looking at homes under $550,000 around Carlsbad or further south, you have been looking at a lot of junkers. Listings like these look great, comparatively, and if schools are a concern, you can always put the kids in private school. Do these tempt you to buy in Oceanside?
Posted on Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 4:32 AM in Thinking of Buying?, Thinking of Selling? | 15 Comments » | 
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The only thing is the overpriced stuff in Carlsbad and further south ain’t selling. Soon most of SD County will be under $200 sq ft and we will be back inline with historic trends.
SMC | February 20th, 2008 at 6:11 amI’m with SMC. That giant arrowood house for $599K is a nice deal; that’s a nice neighborhood. Although I wouldn’t want to care for that size house–I’m a single guy! But there’s nothing around it (yet) and I can’t get even a peak ocean view like I can get in half a dozen places in Carlsbad, let alone a nice ocean or canyon view.
Those of us who are financially responsible, have been saving our money, have great credit, and the incredible patience to have noted the bubble and chosen to wait it out, and perhaps we’re getting a little ornery.
I could buy in Oceanside with the right property, but I’d just as well stick it to a bank that made a stupid loan, right after they take a beautiful home just where I want it away from those folks who don’t and never did deserve to live there: the fools who bid up the price beyond sanity because they had to have it now, notwithstanding their lack of income or savings.
If I sound like I’m getting nasty, it might be true. I’m flabbergasted at the thin character of those who think others should bail them out of their bad financial decisions, and just plain tired of the government willing to cater to that mentality. No surprise, just tired.
Maybe we’ll get an honest market process, see prices fall fast and hard, and deals will proliferate for those with cash and patience. But a Japan scenario, or worse, rapid inflation, could also be the resolution of this problem–and the uncertainty as to what the government may do to hold back the tide of reality is yet another reason why I’m getting less friendly toward sellers and banks-in-denial by the week.
So, sure, I’d consider Oceanside at the right price, and $140 for nice homes is getting to be a pretty good price, but I think the buyers are just beginning to get the upperhand and I’m willing to bide my time and see if the same $200/ft or less for a premium property in Carlsbad arises in the next year.
Keep up the good information, Jim!
lgs | February 20th, 2008 at 8:25 amFrom today’s Union-Trib:
OCEANSIDE: Crime in Oceanside, a city many view as a community beset with gang violence and crime, has dropped to its lowest levels in more than 30 years.
The face of Oceanside is changing, and one prime example of that is that crime is going down,” said Oceanside Police Chief Frank McCoy.
According to 2007 crime statistics released by the chief yesterday, crime rates – the number of crimes per every thousand residents – have steadily declined in the past three years.
Last year, the violent crime rate fell to 5.15, and the property crime rate dropped to 25.97. The overall crime rate was 31.12.
McCoy looked back as far as records could go, to 1975, and found that crime rates have never been lower.
He attributes part of the success to the increased efforts of neighborhood policing teams, which work with citizens to identify problems and find creative solutions.
The department has also added 35 police officers in the past five years, and McCoy expects to ask for more. –K.D.
Jim the Realtor | February 20th, 2008 at 1:47 pmIf I didn’t have school-aged kids I would totally consider that area around La Soledad. Nice new houses at a great price, and the surrounding area is just fine. (Unlike the new developments in Vista, which tend to be in the worst areas!)
Simone | February 20th, 2008 at 2:20 pmCrime is going down in Oside because it’s no longer a cheap sh!thole to live in. The ultra poor and destitute can’t live there anymore.
shadash | February 20th, 2008 at 2:23 pmI disagree with Shadash’s analysis. Crime has gone way down because of a combination of things. Intense redevelopment plans by the city, gang statutes where convicted felons cannot hang out with each other and aggressive policing by the Oceanside Police Department.
keith l | February 20th, 2008 at 4:35 pmI believe "Good Public School" = "Good/Saver Community".
Kenny | February 20th, 2008 at 5:24 pmThis is an entirely subjective and personal opinion but I’m a bit at a loss wondering who wants a 3k-4k square foot home in o-side? Are there that many well off families that want to live there? And if not, how many single people want to manage something that size? to me, the biggest mistake was building these homes as they did. Now the price is falling on them. That helps, I suppose. Still, they’re in o-side. Once you get past needing the status symbol how many "real" people want to manage a mcmansion much less one in o-side?
With all that said Jim, I think you make an excellent point about neighboring communities and the price pressure that they will add to the market.
Escondido has a similar issue. Mcmansions (most of which are wedged into silly lot sizes) next to decaying older neighborhoods in a city that isn’t on the top of the North County desirability list.
I would opine that had these homes been smaller, on the same size lots, they would move quicker.
So here’s my response question to you and my fellow commentors here. It doesn’t really matter what your budget is but for the sake of this hypothetical let’s say it’s $500k. Do you buy the biggest home you can in the area you want or do you do your needs automatically filter out some homes?
I tend to think, looking towards buying in North County someday, that no matter what, I want something around 2k square feet and I’ll but that in the area I want to be in even if there is a larger, possibly nicer home for the same price in a different (or even in the same) area. For us, a 3/3 is about the largest we need. No matter how appealing a 5/5 is, I don’t need or want the responsibility for something larger.
So echoing what I said above in a slightly different form, are there that many families looking for half million dollar homes in North County?
ice weasel | February 20th, 2008 at 5:30 pmlgs, I feel ya. It’s hard for me to contain my bitterness watching so many financially irresponsible people, while I save my money and wait to put 20% down on a house I can afford.
We are at the tip of the iceberg. People’s heads are starting to spin with Fed rates dropping and mortgage rates rising. Like I’ve said before, there’s no way out.
Like me, you’re probably torn between laughing hysterically and cursing up a storm at some of these new listings. People are COMPLETELY in denial about the values of their homes. Sadly, though, they have no choice. If they don’t get their price, they’re underwater whether they lower it themselves, or the bank takes it off their hands.
Somebody on this blog said "the bank price IS the market price" a few weeks ago. This is absolutely true, but it will take a while to play out. Stay patient, my friend!
The Blur | February 20th, 2008 at 7:31 pmO-side is too much of a drive with a family business in Carmel Valley, no way. On the other hand the homes look nice. Seems like many families are looking at around 500K for at least 3bd. I’m holding out for Encinitas myself.
surfpipes | February 20th, 2008 at 7:45 pmI have to say its hard to be patient, fortunatley it appears banks may be coming around and hopefully start lowering comps in some nicer area’s. Jim’s estimate of 500Kish for 2058 Beryl, 92109 may have some merit soon…. bank just lowered from 715K to 629K….
moneymarket | February 20th, 2008 at 7:53 pmWell stated Blur and lgs. This indeed the tip of the iceberg; in another year or so you won’t consider paying these prices for OSide. I have a feeling a lot of places are rolling back to 199x prices if a recession gets rolling full swing and interest rates jump a little. We live in interesting times.
RE home sizes: I’m single and I still want a 4000+ sqft place, even though I agree it would tack on some responsibility. My apartment looks like a tsunami ran over a frat house, but I guess I can always hire a maid once I’m an ‘owner.’
I’m holding out for Solana Beach
Genius | February 20th, 2008 at 8:44 pmI think the only thing that would persuade me to consider a house in Oceanside would be if it really was by the side of the ocean, i.e., oceanview or oceanfront.
GeneK | February 20th, 2008 at 9:19 pmWe lived in O’side, and left because we wanted to be closer to work (south of there) and live in an area with trees (the residents tear them all out in O’side for some unknown reason). Though there are some rough areas — and we lived in/near one — the vast majority of our neighbors were very nice. It usually takes just one or two bad apples to destroy a neighborhood.
As stated before, the O’side PD is one of the best I’ve ever known.
OTOH, we’ve always kept an eye on Escondido, which we prefer because of the larger lots and older homes. Prices are beginning to look much better there, too. It’s not our first choice, but for the same money, the difference in what you get vs. CBD or ENC, is astonishing.
CA renter | February 22nd, 2008 at 7:35 amThanks for all of the info. I am looking to relocate to San Diego from Orange County. I agree with everyone in that we haven’t even seen how low the prices are going to get. It is very exciting for all of us who are looking to buy. I could not believe how huge the Arrowood homes were. Does anyone know if that is a safe neighborhood? It looks so safe and then I look on the internet and there are some really scary statistics about crime in those areas. Is that why the homes are so cheap. I really want a MAnsion!!!! It happens to be the only mansion I will ever be able to affoard. I am currently living in a 2,000 square foot house on a zero lot line with twins. We are busting out of it. As for the schools. There is an awesome charter school in the area with test scores in the 900,s. It is called the Coastal Academy. Any info of good areas in SAn Diego coastal would be appreciated.
Katie | April 3rd, 2008 at 10:52 pm