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Friday, February 8th, 2008 at 4:04 AM

Foreclosures Up (Again)

From the Daily Transcript

San Diego County trustee deeds, a document that allows a third-party trustee to sell a property because the borrower of a mortgage had defaulted on payments, increased in January 2008 to 1,461, from 1,285 in December, 2007.  In January 2007, there were 457 trustee deeds.

Notices of default, the first stage of the foreclosure recorded tio show that the borrower is in arrears on their mortgage payments, spiked to 3,299 in January, 2008 from 2,784 in December 2007.  In January 2007, there were 1,436 notices of default.

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We’ve been following four forclosure agents, how are they doing?

Jun 11 – 328 Actives/98 Pendings = 3.35

Aug 21 – 382 Actives/111 Pendings = 3.44

Sep 20 – 425 Actives/97 Pendings = 4.38

Nov 9 – 486 Actives/128 Pendings = 3.80

Nov 25 – 484 Actives/138 Pendings = 3.51

Dec 14 – 446 Actives/147 Pendings = 3.03

Jan 15 – 474 Actives/149 Pendings = 3.18

Feb 7 – 482 Actives/187 Pendings = 2.57

The banks are being aggressive on price, and it seems like most every one I call has multiple offers on it.  The regular sellers are being left in the dust, but it means that any seller can find a buyer, if they can just get the price right.

P.S.  This week’s REO file has been added to ‘San Diego County REOs’ in the right-hand column. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Remember last week when there were 139 pages, a new record?  This week’s total is 184 PAGES! That is over 900 foreclosures – look for February’s total to be substantially higher than January’s measly 1,461.

 

Posted on Friday, February 8th, 2008 at 4:04 AM in Foreclosure Agents, Foreclosures | 18 Comments » | Print Print You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Reader Comments: 18 Responses

  1. I am a buyer sitting on the fence…If some of these sellers would just get realistic with their prices I would jump right in. Guess it will take a little longer….

    Mark | February 8th, 2008 at 5:01 am

  2. That sharp of an uptick in NOD’s and NOT’s makes me suspect that the lenders were holding back filing in December for public relations. I could be wrong. The Feb. trend will be more convincing.

    Paul Hiller | February 8th, 2008 at 6:03 am

  3. Jim, does "being aggressive on price" translate to any kind of pattern, like 5% below comps, 10% below comps, etc., or is it strictly based on the foreclosure amount?

    GeneK | February 8th, 2008 at 7:16 am

  4. Up here near LA I’ve seen the exact same pattern the last few weeks. Pendings are a bit higher, but if you break the pendings down between short sales and foreclosures (about 30% of the market) compared to the rest of the market. 60% of the pendings come from this 30% of the market. The bottom is falling away from the high end and the people that can afford to deny reality (homeowners who can afford their homes) would be seeing the spread widening between market price and their listing price.. if they bothered to look.

    PingPong | February 8th, 2008 at 8:27 am

  5. "Aggressive on price" is 5% below comps, but unfortunately for other sellers, that is typically way below what they want.

    Take the REO in SEH that I saw yesterday.

    2,646 sf w/ peek ocean view for $534,900. Bare bones – no landscaping, no upgrades, etc.

    It already had one offer, and probably more coming.

    Next door is for sale too:

    2,848 sf w/ better ocean view, granite, blah, blah.

    $695,000 list price.

    And the owner/agent of that one paid $800,000 and has a loan of $481,000. They have lost $200,000 real money, and probably more. But you haven’t lost it until you sell – I’ll predict a new rental listing soon.

    Jim the Realtor | February 8th, 2008 at 1:47 pm

  6. I have driven through SEH a few times since the Twin Oaks extension was completed. Considering the eerie, "Stepford ghost town rising up from the desert" look of the place, the Mello Roos and the inevitability that the HOA is bound to skyrocket when any common area landscaping is finally installed (if it ever is installed), 5% below comps wouldn’t be nearly enough of a discount to pique my interest.

    GeneK | February 8th, 2008 at 2:30 pm

  7. I am a tad slow – where is SEH?

    Lostozzy | February 8th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

  8. Jim, in reference to the SEH REO at $534,900 – are these selling at list price or are people discounting the already lowered bank pricing? Thanks for the info!

    MT | February 8th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

  9. Lostozzy – SEH is San Elijo Hills in South Carlsbad/Western San Marcos http://sanelijohills.com/where_we_are.php

    MT | February 8th, 2008 at 3:36 pm

  10. The SEH REO will most likely sell over list price. I saw the listing agent over there and she said the demand was very healthy – it usually is when you are $160,000 UNDER the house next door, and only 202 sf smaller.

    Let’s be clear though. San Elijo Hills is in San Marcos – city and schools. Carlsbad is next door.

    I still have trouble driving by the old dump to get there – it was no man’s land 10 years ago. The ‘landfill’ is unmarked and rarely mentioned, but it is huge, and SEH surrounds it.

    Jim the Realtor | February 8th, 2008 at 3:45 pm

  11. Bressi Ranch is next to a huge landfill too, nobody ever bothers mentioning that either. I guess there are not that many old locals around… but I happen to know someone who remembers dumping all kinds of stuff there.

    Regarding the pricing of the REOs: I have the feeling that some banks are actively searching for the correct market price by listing way lower than the comps, and then sorting out the offers. Not a bad way to go – beats sitting around for months lowering every two weeks.

    Simone | February 8th, 2008 at 5:03 pm

  12. It’s a great way to go – and may be the ONLY way to go before long.

    Jim the Realtor | February 8th, 2008 at 5:05 pm

  13. Jim, is this 184 pages and 900 NEW foreclosures since last week, or is this list cumulative?

    GeneK | February 8th, 2008 at 5:17 pm

  14. Not cumulative – 900+ on this week’s list.

    The list is a compilation of trustee sales have happened over the last few weeks, but each week we get a new batch.

    Jim the Realtor | February 8th, 2008 at 5:29 pm

  15. Speaking of landfills and such, aren’t a good number of the new houses in CV on or close to 56? I would think 56 is comparable to an old dump by SEH or Bressi Ranch, isn’t it?

    SMC | February 8th, 2008 at 5:30 pm

  16. With interest rates so low wouldn’t it be reasonable to assume that a good business plan might be to buy some of these homes via short sale prior to them going into foreclosure and rent them back to the original owners? This would assume the original owner was just in over their heads and actually had a job and could cover the rent. You could build in an option for the renter to buy again in say 5 years or so to keep them motivated to upkeep the house.

    Are there areas that could cash flow right now on a $300k house in Oceanside?

    Double A | February 8th, 2008 at 7:08 pm

  17. Thanks for the SEH explanation. I know where it is, just braincramped and couldn’t connect the acronyms.

    Lostozzy | February 8th, 2008 at 7:54 pm

  18. "You haven’t lost it until you sell"
    - Jim

    You haven’t gained it until you sell either.

    Genius | February 8th, 2008 at 8:02 pm

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