bubbleinfo.com

The trustee-sale dates are filed on these properties – look for them coming on the market soon! 

LSP = last sales price, JLP = Jim’s guess at the bank’s new list price, TSD trustee sale date

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7033 Surfbird, Carlsbad

2 br/2.5 ba,    1,705 sf

LSP = $695,000 12/06

JLP = $599,000

TSD 1/15/08

This detached condo in Aviara could be a bargain compared to the last two sales of the same model – they both closed at $700,000 in April and May.

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649 Cypress Hills, Enc.

4 br/3.5 ba     3,176 sf

LSP = $1,170,000 10/05

JLP = $959,000

TSD  9/6/07

The 2,928 sf former model down the street just closed on 1/8/08 for $1,079,000, and, even though there has been nine sales over $1,000,000 in Encinitas Ranch in the last six months (avg. $350/sf), I think the bank will consider this comp - there is a model-match that was priced at $995,000, but when its foreclosure started to loom, the agent put it on the range $750-$850,000.  It went pending this week, and the bottom of the range was raised to $800,000.  If that bank caves (owner paid $1.2 and fin. 100%) that’ll be the next comp - in the low-$800,000s.

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12693 Calle de la Siena, CV

4 br/2.5 ba,     2,075 sf

LSP = $445,000  12/98

JSP = $679,000

TSD  8/23/07

There were at least three houses nearby that sold in the $800,000s in 2007 of this model or smaller, including the house in the picture, a model match that closed for $820,000.  The house in question didn’t have a picture from 1998 but it mentioned an unobstructed panoramic view – will the  bank get greedy and push for $7-something?  If not, this would be a decent buy under $700,000.

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4803 Tarantella, CV

3 br/2.5 ba,   2,350 sf

LSP = $800,000  3/04

JLP = $729,000

TSD  1/17/08

This was listed for more than $800,000 for most of 2007, but if the $184,000 second mortgage holder doesn’t step up, you could see the new list price in the low-$700,000s.  Two recent sales on this street both closed on the same day, 1/22/08;  one for $835,000 for 2,902 sf, and the other or $850,000 for 2,567 sf.

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11313 E. San Raphael, CV

3 br/2.5 ba  2,372 sf

LSP = $856,000  7/05

JLP = $739,000

TSD  1/7/08

Six houses in the tract sold for $785,000 to $910,000 in 2007, but currently there are five active listings battling it out, all around $800,000.  The bank will likely undercut all of them, setting the new standard.

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Want to take a crack at one of these? 

Contact me at jim@jimklinge.com

Olivenhain has had quite a run lately.  Here are the annual numbers of closed sales of homes at $2,499,000 and higher:

2003 = 3

2004 = 3

2005 = 8

2006 = 3

2007+ = 12

In addition, over the history of Olivenhain real estate, there have been only 5 houses sell over $3,000,000, and 3 out of 5 have closed since July 17th! 

Here are recent sales (DOM = days on market):

3230 Bella Collina

5 br/5.5 ba, 5,668 sf  1 ac.

OLP = $3,050,000

SP = $2,499,000

1/10/08   116 DOM

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3135 Dusty Trail

5 br/4.5 ba, 4,121 sf 3 ac.

OLP = $2,995,000

SP = $2,520,000 

9/26/07   178 DOM

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3223 Bella Collina

5 br/6.5 ba, 6,718 sf 3 ac.

OLP = $3,195,000

SP = $2,900,000

8/13/07   14 DOM

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3402 Calle Margarita

5 br/4.5 ba, 5,635 sf4 ac.

OLP = $3,200,000

SP = $3,078,000

9/7/07   25 DOM

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3372 Calle Margarita

4 br/6 ba, 7,041 sf 2.1 ac.

OLP = $3,195,000

SP = $3,100,000

1/7/08  11 DOM

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3226 Violet Ridge

5 br/6 ba, 6,660 sf 2 ac.

OLP = $3,499,000

SP = $3,120,000

7/17/07   41 DOM

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Here’s the problem - once you have three houses close over $3 million in a six-month period, EVERYBODY in Olivenhain is going to think their house is worth $3-something.  But how real are those sales?

Here are facts behind the three that closed for $3+ million:

One was financed 96%

One was bought by a major rock star’s wife (or ex-wife, not sure)

One buyer paid cash

How many more buyers are going to come along like these?  Not many, if any.  Yet, as a result of this run of high sales, sellers and agents are going to think their house is worth a lot more than it used to be – but is it?

Ask this owner.

This was your run-of-the-mill garden variety NOD/NOT/BK/divorce deal, with a little extra on top – a SEC probe, etc.  The trustee sale was scheduled for July 7th on the mortgage of $1.75 million, so after it was featured here I went and talked to the owner in person about taking $2 million. 

Can you guess what the answer was?  That’s right!

No way, they aren’t going to give it away.

The attorney told me that if it ended up being auctioned on the courthouse steps, he had no concerns about a bidder paying at least $2.5 million for it.  Really? Are there trustee-sale bidders walking around with $2.5 million in cash, waiting to buy Olivenhain fixers?  He was sure of it.

So instead they listed with a out-of-area agent (Pacific Beach) on the good ol’ range of $2,995,000 to $3,494,876.  It was reduced to $2,495,000 to $2,894,876 later, and on January 9th it went pending!

But on the 22nd it fell out of escrow.  I wonder how much time the bankruptcy judge will give them before cutting loose the trustee sale? 

In the pictures on the MLS it looks all cleaned up, but the listing agent "borrowed" this picture from a previous listing a couple of years ago:

This is how it looked when I was there (below). 

Want to re-consider my $2 million offer yet?

Same-house sales is probably the best way to gauge pricing – here are those that have resold this month that had been purchased in the last few years in Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley:

3386 Tyler St.,  Carlsbad

2 br/2 ba, 930 sf

11/06 = $520,000

1/08 = $420,000

34 days on market REO

When it sold in 2006 it had been on the market for 276 days, and then those owners financed 100%.  Bad combination.

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7585 Dehesa, Carlsbad

3 br/2 ba, 1,572 sf

6/05 = $530,000

1/08 = $500,000

91 days on market

Was listed for 87 days with one agent, cancelled, a top agent picks it up, puts the view picture in as the primary photo (instead of the garage door), and sells it in 4 days – with the same list price, $509,000.

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6857 Amber, Carlsbad

5 br/5.5 ba, 4,745 sf

6/07 = $1,739,000

1/08 = $1,575,000

110 days on market

This is the third sale of this home; it was purchased originally from the builder for $1,600,000 in 12/05.  Not sure what this second buyer was thinking, but they lost $164,000, plus costs, in seven months.  No buyer-side commission paid though!

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4737 Crater Rim, C-bad

3 br/2.5 ba 2,170 sf

11/06 = $726,000

1/08 = $712,740

10 days on market

Had distant ocean view overlooking a future home development site.  No buyer-side commission paid, so listing agent noted that the effective sales price was $742,000.  The buyer saves $319.43 in taxes annually by foregoing the $22,260 commission.

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944 Jasmine, Carlsbad

3 br/2ba 1,766 sf

8/04 = $663,000

2/05 = $724,000

1/08 = $620,000

121 days on market

The previous two sales weren’t on the MLS, so it’s hard to figure the circumstances, but future buyers won’t care.  This was a short sale, and sold for $50,000 less than same model sold for in November.  Worst floor plan in tract.  Built in 1977 and not upgraded inside – those are the ones that have the hardest time selling.

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938 Jasmine, Carlsbad

4 br/2 ba, 2,404 sf

8/05 = $837,500

1/08 = $740,000

16 days on market REO

Previous owner had tried to sell in the $900,000s, but no luck.  The bank did OK, they were only into it for $672,000.  At the time of foreclosure there were three loans, totaling over $1.2 million.  The third was $468,000 with Banco Popular North America – ouch.

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1079 Cottage, Encinitas

3 br/2.5 ba, 1,543 sf

5/04 = $587,000

1/08 = $540,000

16 days on market REO

A detached condo with no fancy upgrades in the heart of Encinitas – previous owners refi’d up with a $650,000 in loans from First Franklin in 2006.

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270 Caliban,  Encinitas

4 br/2 ba, 1,672 sf

1/04 = $530,000

1/08 = $550,000

56 days on market

Previous owners could have done OK, if it weren’t for the extra $120,000 they refi’d out with WaMu after buying with 100% financing.  A rarity here, WaMu was the seller – we have seen very few second mortgage holders step in to try and recoup some of their dough.  The first loan was $424,000, so WaMu might have gotten back $75,000 or so of their $226,500 original balance.

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3959 Santa Nella, CV

5 br/3 ba, 2,533 sf

5/05 = $950,000

1/08 = $859,000

2 days on market

These sellers are interesting.  When they paid $950,000, the house had been on the market four days, and the list price was on the range $879,000 to $929,000.  Then when they sold, they hire the previous listing agent, who tells them to start at $869,000, then they take $859,000 after two days on market, and the listing agent represented the buyer.

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13121 Chambord, CV

5 br/3 ba, 2,724 sf

7/05 = $990,000

1/08 = $1,015,000

203 days on market

This is the former model, and the highest sale ever on the street – the same model on the same side of street sold for $955,000 in August.  Buyers put down $1M.

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Carmel Valley is still holding pretty good, some cracks in the armor in Carlsbad and Encinitas.

Inman News ran an article today that featured a question about the impact of a foreclosure on your credit:

Q: I am in a tough financial situation. My primary residence was foreclosed on, and after that happened, I moved to my investment property. Once that mortgage adjusted, I realized I could not afford to pay that mortgage either.

My guess is that I’ll go into foreclosure on this property by April.

I am thinking about filing for bankruptcy. Will it be harder for me to get another home loan with two foreclosures on my credit history, or will it be worse if I have two foreclosures and a bankruptcy? Please help.

A: Well, I have to commend you for staying positive. Not many people would be thinking about buying another home while facing foreclosure in their primary residence. I actually think it will be pretty tough to get someone to give you a home loan after you’ve been foreclosed upon twice, whether or not you file for bankruptcy.

So let’s worry about what’s happening to you now, and not what may happen in the future.

Is there any way to save your current house? Can you rent it? Can you rent part of it and continue to live there? Can you sell it? Can you agree to hand over the deed to the lender and complete a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure? Have you discussed what is happening with the lender to see if there is any way to rework your loan?

I’m sure you thought that buying an investment property was an easy way to make some money, but as you’ve discovered, the reality of investing in real estate can be messy.

If you earn any real money at all in your day job, it’ll be tough for you to file for bankruptcy. But if you feel as though this is the only way out, then consult with a bankruptcy attorney.

In the meantime, do what you can to keep current on all of your other bills. When it comes time to rebuild your credit, that’s what you’ll need to focus on — paying each and every one of your bills on time, every month.

Once you have two to four years of clean credit, you can think about buying another piece of real estate.

What is the truth about how long it takes? 

I asked two different lenders today for answers.

Lender One, a 20-year veteran:

No stated-income loans, the loan app will have to be full-doc.

For standard Fannie/Freddie conforming loans (currently $417,000 and under). You are probably looking at 5-7 years before being able to get a regular 30-year fixed mortgage rate/program.

For neg-am loans (Wachovia/WaMu).  You’ll probably need 3-5 years before being able to get a loan.

Lender Two, a 20-year veteran:

She read to me over the phone the current Bank of America guidelines.

No minimum time required after a foreclosure or bankruptcy, if there are three established trade lines and FICO scores  that correspond to these loan-to-values.

70% to 95% LTV = 700+ FICO
60% to 70% LTV = 660+ FICO

If those aren’t met, then four years required to pass before getting a loan, unless there are extenuating circumstances.

That’s loosey-goosey, if you ask me.  People who got foreclosed on over the last couple of years can get back in the buyer pool before long, and will probably be happy to buy at deflated prices and lower rates.

This story has been in the works since it closed in August, 2005.  The buyers are suing the agent for selling them a $1,200,000 house in Carlsbad that they claim was over-priced.

from the New York Times:

"The Ummels accuse Mr. Little not only of withholding information but of exaggerating the virtues of their house to push them into a deal.

Ms. Ummel said in her deposition that Mr. Little had told them “many times that it was a very good buy.”

“And you believed that?” asked David Bright, the lawyer who represents both Mr. Little and ReMax Associates, which was also named in the suit.

“Yes, we trusted Mike Little,” Ms. Ummel replied.

another excerpt:

Ms. Ummel’s original suit included the appraiser, who was accused of skewing his report to make the Ummel’s house seem worth the purchase price, and the mortgage broker. Modest settlements have been reached with both.

In a brief phone interview, Mr. Little called the case “ridiculous,” adding: “The lady’s a nut job. I didn’t do anything wrong.”

Mr. Little said that contrary to Ms. Ummel’s claims, the suit was motivated mainly by the declining market. “When people see their home values and assets declining, they always feel there’s someone to blame,” he said. “This is a dangerous time for all of us in the industry.”

The agent declined several requests to expand on his remarks. His lawyer declined to be interviewed. So did Geoff Mountain, a co-owner of ReMax Associates, which owns the office that the Ummels were dealing with.

Both sides have hired appraisers who have combed the surrounding development. Mr. Little’s appraiser concluded the four-bedroom, 3.5-bath house was worth $1,150,000 to $1.2 million in the summer of 2005. The Ummels’ appraiser said it was worth $1,050,000.

A link to the full story:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/22/business/22agent.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

picture by Sandy Huffaker for the NYT

greenlander suggested a couple of months back that we should have a contest for guessing what the median asking price of SD properties will be on January 21st, as listed on:

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/

When this contest began on November 15th, the median asking price in San Diego was $467,900.  Today it is $449,000, which is a 4% decline in just over two months.  

Here is the list of guesses:

$415,000 CA renter

$422,000 SMC

$432,100 Arty

$435,000 Mike

$437,750 Angela

$438,900 Jon Bristow

$440,000 Amey

$440,000 greenlander

$442,000 David J.

$445,000 Simone

$446,000 Horse Racing Man

$447,000 Kenny

$449,900 CV Bidder

$451,000 Westparker

$452,225 Bots

$454,400 Rob Dawg

$456,202 jd (+.50)

$456,900 FirstTimeRenter

$457,500 I-man

$458,500 OCVulture

$459,500 SurferNate

$461,000 norcal ray

$465,000 House Dog

$466,450 KC_to_SD

$467,900 CVman

$470,000 Cccactii

$475,000 Colleen

$479,500 South swell

$480,000 PoorHouse

$493,975 No Such Realty

$500,000 doughboy

CV Bidder, you’re the winner!  4 tickets to this week’s golf!

Greenlander, thanks the suggestion – and reminder.  I have another four tickets to the Buick Open, do you want them?

Bob Dyson sold his San Diego branch of Dyson and Dyson to Coldwell Banker a few years back, and went to the desert to retire, or at least that’s what some of us thought.

Bob is back – he started up Sotheby’s in Del Mar recently, and has rolled out this new/old program:

Sellers (and agents) want to believe that things are “picking up”, and the spring buying season is ahead, but something has to give here. The new listings coming on the market are going to over-shadow the number of closings:

Attached and Detached Listings in SD County, January 1-15

There are fewer new listings, -10%, during the first 15 days of this year, compared to last – but the sales are down 33% over the same period. If you add 10% for the late-reporters, it will still be -26%.

How is the big game going to turn out today?

One of these three things will happen:

1.  Rivers really is hurt bad enough that he can’t play, and Billy Volek leads the team to a surprising victory after the Chargers defense takes out Brady in the first quarter.  (Who is Brady’s back-up?)

Rivers is then traded to the Packers for a case of brats and a pony keg of beer – and backs-up Favre for a couple of years.

2.  Norv pulls a fast one.  Rivers really isn’t hurt, and LT’s comment on Friday ("I just hope we don’t get embarassed") was staged.  We shock the world by coming out without undershirts or coats, and put a whoopin’ on the Patriots after taking out Brady in the first quarter.

3.  We get embarassed.

I don’t see it being a close game – if the Patriots get rolling, it’ll be hard to stop them and re-gain enough momentum to overcome our injuries.

What do you think?

Are far as homes go, most of the Chargers live in Poway or Scripps Ranch, close to the Chargers’ training facility and to Qualcomm Stadium ("The Murph").

But one of today’s players lives in North County Coastal, Junior Seau.  When the Chargers played in their only Super Bowl in 1994, do you remember the announcer saying that Junior came from Oceanside, that gang-infested town in North County?  It was quite a setback for Oceanside’s reputation.

At the time Junior lived in La Jolla, then he moved to Cielo near Rancho Santa Fe.  Where does he live now?

He’s back home in O-town!  He bought here in 2005:

There have been 187 new listings of detached homes this year in Carlsbad, Encinitas, and Carmel Valley.  How many are hot, fresh, new product, and how many are retreads?

There were 64 of the 105 (61%) that I checked that had been on the market in 2007, but failed to sell and have relisted. 

Thirty-five of the 64 didn’t bother to change the price, and those that did lower, didn’t lower it much.

Six of the 105 had tried to sell in 2006, took last year off, and are now back on.  Two of the six raised their price.

Grand total of 70 of 105 have been on the market previously – why do they "freshen-up" their listing?  Our MLS numbers start with the year, 08xxxxxxx, and by February the listings from last year look old and stale.  Because they are so easy to identify with their MLS number, realtors will re-input them to get a re-start on the market time.

It’s in the sellers’ best interest, and because the MLS doesn’t do much about it, don’t be surprised if it continues.  I even get caught every once in a while – that guy on Mona the other day who had a trustee sale date on his $700,000 loan who listed for $1.1 to $1.2 million?  That was a re-list, he has been trying since October 1st and hasn’t lowered his price.  The MLS police must have been alerted though, because the agent has since cancelled the new listing and had to re-activate the old one.  It is against the rules to re-list, but you only get caught if another agent turns you in.

On a separate note, Erin asked this question:

BUT…I do have something I wanted to ask you. We were in Carlsbad during December house/rental hunting. We were out there visiting relatives for Christmas and wanted to drive around the area in preparation for our move to so cal. We did it with no realtor, we just wanted to get a feel for the area.Anyway we picked up a TON of fliers and were able to see a lot of neighborhoods. There was one house in Carlsbad that had a flier but no price on it. I called the 1-800 voice recording to hear the price and hung up at the end of the recording.A week later I got a phone call from a realtor who said he was returning my phone call about properties in the area. Umm….wait a minute. I NEVER even talked to a realtor while we were there! I was totally confused, but then realized when he said who he worked for how he got my #. It was through caller ID when I called to hear the recording about that property.