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Today’s headline:

New single-family home sales fell 4.7 percent in December to its lowest rate in nearly 13 years.

I don’t know about you, but that sounded pretty good to me.

San Diego County’s detached resales for December:

2005 = 1,760

2006 = 1,607

2007 = 976

A much-bigger drop this time, -39% YOY, than the previous year. 

How about 2008?

January 1-22

2006 = 801

2007 = 724

2008 = 504

Only a 30% decline, year-over-year, for the preliminary January sales, but a similar pattern.  The previous YOY declines in both categories were -9% and -10%, and those seemed substantial then, now a -30% seems normal and expected.

Once the late-reporters finish logging their sales this month, the total might go up to 550 or so for the time period January 1-22, but that would still be a 24% drop, YOY.

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Could the slight improvement in the amount of decline be a sign of something?  We can check the pending file to see what’s coming over the next 30-60 days.  I don’t like considering the pendings that have been in escrow for more than 3 months, even though they might still close. 

Here are the pendings, in the month they went pending:

October and before = 212

November = 165

December = 472

January = 1,020

The last three numbers add up to 1,657.

There aren’t enough pendings to get giddy about there being more closings over the next few months, but we might slog along at about the same monthly pace that we’ve been at recently.

There have been 603 closings for January reported month-to-date.  Last year there were 474 closings between Jan 22-31, so if we take 70% of those, we can project about 934 closings for this month, and if we add a few late-reporters, it’s roughly the same as the last three months:

Oct = 937

Nov = 1,020

Dec = 976

4Q07 = 2,933

There were 4,504 sales in 4Q06, so we’re looking at a 35% decline, year-over-year, on the quarterly numbers too.

Monthly sales will probably be around 900-1,000 for the next two months.  There are currently 12,267 active listings of detached homes.

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Which brings us to the US Open tickets contest for 4Q07.

Here are the closest guessers:

We’ll take the final count on Friday, but it looks like Smithers is in the driver’s seat.  Here is the report from the Buick Open, to give you a preview – from OCVulture:

The weather was good.
The golf was great!
Tiger was unreal
Phil still needs to loose weight.
The $10 martini’s at the Grey Goose Glass Lounge on the 17th fairway was unigue — but hey we got free golf caps!…Its pretty sureal to see Tiger on the fairway, and also seeing it live on the huge plazma screen drinking a martini and explaining to a Grey Goose hostess why golf is so difficult?! 
Anyway, we spent most of the time watching approach shots into the 4th green (right by the cliffs) and watching some amazing long down hill puts back to hole.  FYI..Great spectator spot to see a variety of shots around the green with amazing views of La Jolla.
Told my buddies about Klinge Realty and the Blog!
THANKS AGAIN!!!!

Posted on Monday, January 28th, 2008 at 2:50 PM in Monthly Sales Count | 5 Comments » |  Print You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.