bubbleinfo.com

SD COUNTY NOON UPDATE:

241,000 acres burned

1,250 homes destroyed

Over 500,000 people evacuated

2 deaths

Approx 50 injuries

40 aircraft working the fire

23 shelters open

People allowed to go back to their homes in Scripps Ranch, Del Mar (west of freeway), and in the south part of Poway.

Mandatory evacuations still exist for Fallbrook, De Luz, Rainbow, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Santa Fe, Fairbanks Ranch, Olivenhain, South Escondido, Chula Vista and North Poway.

A "recovery director" has been appointed, federal and state assistance is ordered, and FEMA is on the way.  I’m not sure if that makes me feel better.

The City of San Diego will have on their website the addresses of the homes lost in Rancho Bernardo after 2pm today:  www.sandiego.gov

All San Diego schools will be closed on Wednesday. All SD Catholic schools closed for the rest of the week.

1:07pm – Harmony Grove’s 1,095 households have been notified by the ‘reverse-911′ to evacuate.  That must mean that the RSF fire is burning north, and/or the South Escondido fire is burning northwest. 

The Poomacho Fire that started this morning at the base of Palomar Mountain is already up to 20,000 acres.  The north part of Valley Center has been evacuated as a result.  There is a big concern about this fire and the Witch fire meeting later today, creating a super-fire.  They described it as the same effect as when two locomotives collide head-on, and it can have catastrophic results.  This could happen somewhere around west Escondido/Harmony Grove area.

Julian has also received a mandatory evacuation notice.  There is also a report of homes that have burned on the edge of Fairbanks Ranch.

Here is a blog featuring pictures of Rancho Santa Fe:

http://rsffirenews.blogspot.com/

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The Witch Fire is into Rancho Santa Fe, Channel 8 is reporting the following houses have burned:

7499 Vista Rancho (in the Summit)

16439 El Sicomoro

6125,6129 & 6131 Camino Selva

7026 Via Monalex

16843 Via de Santa Fe

16807 & 16827 Via de la Valle

16501, 16526, 16555, 16583, 16655, 16729, & 16755 Zumaque

16910 & 16924 Avenida Luis

17122 El Mirador

17116 El Vuelo

7035 Las Colinas

These are all on the east side of Rancho Santa Fe, and everywhere between Olivenhain and Del Mar Heights in on alert.

On the north side of RSF it’s being reported that the Bridges is threatened, but no houses burning yet.

The RSF Fire Protection District is reporting that 4,400 acres have burned, and 35 structures lost.

In Fallbrook, the Rice fire has burned 1,500 acres, and has turned east, moving towards De Luz Road.  Another fire broke out around 3am near Palomar Mountain, and had consumed 200 acres – Valley Center Rd. has been closed and the north side of Valley Center has been issued a evacuation notice. The I-15 freeway is open though.

The rest of North County appears to be OK (there is NO wind at my house) except for the smoke, this picture was taken at 8am:

You’ll hear comparisons to the 2003 Cedar Fire, which burned 280,000 acres and 2,232 homes, and caused 15 deaths.  During the Cedar Fire there were 50,000 people evacuated, this time over 300,000 people have been evacuated and only one death, which happened on the first day.  Currently the totals are around 175,000 acres burned and 1,000 houses lost.  There have been 20 people injured, including 5 firefighters.

Mike asked for an answer – he couldn’t see any reason for somebody to buy a house now, is there one?

I’ve mentioned my theory about superior homes holding up better than the junkers, and so far that’s been true, generally-speaking.  I said there would still be declines for the nice ones, just not as much.

Here is my prototypical superior house:

Great location

Great school district

Newer

One-story

Medium-sized lot

Three-car garage

No HOA

No Mello-Roos fees

Red-tile roof

The supply-and-demand for this prototype is balanced today.  The builders aren’t building them, the owners that have them aren’t selling, and the demand is high with baby-boomers looking for one-story floor plan in particular.

If you find a house that meets ALL the above criteria, and the price is a deal to you, then you should buy it.  

If you are looking for houses, but can compromise on one or more of these criteria, then be pickier about what you buy, and when, because the more of these items that you eliminate, the more houses you’ll see on the market – the supply-and-demand isn’t as healthy.

If you hit a home run on one of these, then compromising won’t hurt you as much either.  If you can pick up a two-story at a good price that backs to a golf course and is in a good school district, the two big benefits can outweigh the two-story – go for it. 

Likewise, if you can live with a condo and high HOA and mello-roos fees, or you want to live in Chula Vista or Oceanside, then you should be very patient, there will be LOTS of those coming on the market in the future, many of them REOs.