Saturday, September 22nd, 2007 at 3:22 PM
Active/Pendings Stats
I described the relationship between active listings and current pendings as being in “freefall” once the ratio gets higher than seven to one. Freefall means you really don’t know what your house would sell for – there are so many unsold listings around you that they overwhelm the comps and dilutes the experience for the buyers.
When confronted with too many choices, the buyers hestitate – until the prices get attractive enough.
Here are the towns and areas around SD North County:
| Town or area    | Actives    | Pendings    | Act/Pend |
| C-bad 92010 | |||
| Carmel Vly | |||
| Univ. City | |||
| Encinitas | |||
| La Jolla | |||
| Cardiff | |||
| C-bad 92011 | |||
| SM 92078 | |||
| Del Mar | |||
| Vista 92081 | |||
| Oside 92057 | |||
| C-bad 92009 | |||
| Solana Beach | |||
| Oside 92056 | |||
| C-bad 92008 | |||
| Vista 92084 | |||
| Oside 92054 | |||
| Vista 92083 | |||
| RSF | |||
| Bonsall | |||
| SM 92069 |
A common thread of the higher-ranked areas is that they have older homes. The buyers are being very critical about the condition of the houses – the condition needs to be impeccable just to have a shot at selling, or the price REALLY attractive.
Posted on Saturday, September 22nd, 2007 at 3:22 PM in Uncategorized | 10 Comments » | 
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of course C-bad 92010 is dominated by the agent you wrote about that has been getting sellers to cut prices.
the buyers are still out there, in a game of chickens, the one that’s underwater and paying mortgage/mello roos/HOA every month will be the one that blink first.
OCRenter | September 22nd, 2007 at 11:05 pmI bet a lot of the "priced to sit" homes in RSF are actually very nice, and would sell quickly if the owner would just knock one or two million off the asking price.
Smithers | September 22nd, 2007 at 11:30 pmJim,
Thanks for including numbers for 92003.
Based on the 21 areas listed in your post, the San Diego area is in an 8.41 Act/Pend "Freefall". (3742/445)
Ironically-It’s the first week of the "FALL" season…….
Grizzly Bear Man | September 23rd, 2007 at 12:07 am"the condition needs to be impeccable just to have a shot at selling, or the price REALLY attractive" That’s crazy talk, Jim. If you want to sell your home this is what you need to do: http://www.sacbee.com/142/story/386801.html
Bear | September 23rd, 2007 at 12:46 amTime saver if sac bee asks for registration:
Member ID: bubbleinfo
Bear | September 23rd, 2007 at 1:07 amPassword: jimklinge
I doubt Divine Intervention will help. The last time I checked, the "Man Upstairs" is not real keen on the Greed issue. That little issue got many folks (on all sides) into this situation to begin with…….
Grizzly Bear Man | September 23rd, 2007 at 1:18 amThe ol’ St. Joseph statue!
I’m a good catholic boy, and occasionally get clients from church.
One family asked about the statues, and I said of course, my track record using statues is 100% (once during the heyday).
Before seeing the house, I told them the way it comped I wanted to list for $799,000. But wait jim, once you see the kitchen remodel, you’ll be really impressed.
There was one sale not on the MLS for $895,000 in the tract, but other than that I had little to work with. Of course they wanted to list for $899,000.
We do our statue ceremony and everything, but after spending about $1,500 in marketing and 6-8 open houses, my three months is up. I tell them it looks like the market will support somewhere in the low-$800,000s.
He says, ‘I’d never sell for that’ and they give me the ‘going in a different direction’ line.
They interview other agents, one who told me about 2 months prior she might have a buyer for it, but never brought her over.
Guess what happened.
He hires that agent, she brings in the buyer, and boom, sale done without JTR.
Sales price? $829,000.
I have a bag of statues for sale if you know of anybody who wants them.
Jim the Realtor | September 23rd, 2007 at 1:50 amThe power of the market compels thee!
The power of the market compels thee!
House payment begone!
I had a thought. An adjunct to the Jim Ratio. One of the things that has been concerning me about pendings is the additional length of time it is taking to close. THe new Jim Ratio could be the sum total DOM of actives divided by sum total of days in pending.
Robert Coté | September 23rd, 2007 at 4:21 amI like it.
We could sell it to the banks to show them how inefficient they are.
The only reason the DOM is longer is because of the banks kicking around so many files.
Just take the four foreclosure agents I’m tracking, and their 100 pendings at an average of $400,000 per REO.
100 x $400,000 = $40 million x 4.75% annually = $158,333 per month for every 30-day delay. That’s just four agents in SD County – the banks are probably blowing at least a half million dollars per month on delays, just in SD County – and they can’t add a few extra administrative people to push ‘em through faster??
Think of how many they are sitting on, waiting for staff to get around to processing. The house across the street from me got foreclosed a month ago and the ex-owners moved out within three days – but the kids came back and have been freeloading ever since.
You could close a deal in a day or two today if you had to – of the 22 people who came to my Vista listing on caravan Friday, half of them were escrow, title, and mortgage reps. And this is the old-fashioned caravan where you drive together to each listing – why are affiliates wasting a whole morning looking at houses? Because they have nothing else to do.
Jim the Realtor | September 23rd, 2007 at 5:41 amJim,
looks like the banks can afford to lose money for now and are not in a hurry to sell. They still have a lot of capital but will be under pressure to sell in 2008.
norcalray | September 23rd, 2007 at 6:06 am