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A year ago today was the beginning of the cup of coffee bet – Robert said he’d buy a cup of coffee if there were any neighborhoods that WEREN’T down more than 10% down in price.

Two of the three neighborhoods I named as possibilities were Olde Carlsbad and Terramar – both are older neighborhoods with individually-built homes, which are tougher to compare, apples-for-apples.

Let’s cut to the chase, the bet rides on the third neighborhood, the Davidson tract in La Costa Oaks.

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Davidson La Costa Oaks homes in 2006:

Plan One 3,739 sf model

7/5/06                 $1,144,500

7/28/06              $930,000

8/7/06                 $1,085,000

10/20/06           $1,275,000

11/8/06               $1,161,500

Average $1,119,200  Median $1,144,500

Plan Two 4,000 sf model

7/5/06                 $1,298,000

8/7/06                 $1,172,000

Average $1,235,000

Plan Three 4,337 sf model

9/27/06              $1,250,000

Generally, sales of all three models would have to be in the $1,100,000 to $1,200,000 range in September 2007 to win the bet.

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Summary of recent 2007 sales:

Plan One sales

5/14/07  $1.2 million (former model home)

7/16/07  $1.175 million

7/27/07  $1.130 million

Hanging around $1.1 million?

Plan Two sales

6/19/07  $1.05 million

6/13/07  $1.167 million

7/11/07  $1.2 million

8/23/07  $1.255 million

On the increase…..

Plan Three

No sales last four months.

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Like Robert has said, the data tends to be scattered, especially the smaller subsets.  But generally the solds have held in the $1.1 million to $1.2 million range.

How about the active listings?

Plan Two listed on the range $1.189 to $1.249, since May. 

Plan Three listed for $1.425 million, on market since May.

How about the pendings?

The latest comps will be these pendings when they close.  We saw the REO list for a VERY attractive price a couple of months ago, and even though the listing agent had said it would take two weeks for the bank to respond, it went pending in eight days.  I believe it fell out since, and went right back into escrow with a new buyer.  All of these should be closing soon, and if it weren’t for the REO – I think I’d be OK.

Three pendings, all Plan One 3,743 sf (List prices)

$989,900 Bare bones, east view, smaller yard, REO.  DOM: 8

$1,150,000 Good-sized yard, no view. DOM: 108

$1,475,000 – $1,575,000 Best SW view, premium lot. DOM: 38

The agent of the one above confirmed that it should be closing any day, at a sales price above the bottom of the range, $1,475,000.

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There is a qualifier.  While I took the bet to be a 10% decline over the past year, Robert actually said:

"I’ll buy you that $4 cup of coffee if you can find anything that isn’t off at least 10% from the peak this time next year."

The ‘peak’ is different than just the last twelve months, but these homes were built and sold in 2005 and 2006.  The first phases in 2005 were selling in the $900,000s, without landscaping.

Would you say I won the bet?  Or just lucky?

Here is the post that started it all:

http://www.bubbleinfo.com/2006/09/16/grand-poobah-of-predictions/

Posted on Sunday, September 16th, 2007 at 2:15 PM in Uncategorized | 6 Comments » |  Print You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.