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Archive for July, 2007


Thursday, July 19th, 2007 at 1:00 PM

Coffee Update – Summer

coffimages.jpgMy cup-of-coffee bet with Robert was looking pretty good.  All I needed was to have sales in Davidson’s La Costa Oaks tract stay in the $1,100,000 to $1,200,000 range until September, and I’d win.

A low sale for $1.05 million was resold for $1.2 million recently, so I dodged a bullet there. 

csx071032128_0.jpgA Plan One came on the market at 7546 Circulo Sequoia listed for $1.2 million, and went pending May 2nd after 12 days on the market, so I’m feeling pretty good. 

 

 

 

 

csslr1000488257-15.jpgBut then in April the seller of this Plan Three who had it rented and had done no landscaping got bailed out at $1,024,000.  The lowest resale price for a Plan Three yet, but it needed work, right?  Can I dodge another bullet? 

 

 

 

csxx071032778_0.jpgThe house right next door to that one, a Plan Two, just went pending that was listed on the range $1.26 to $1.325, so they probably got $1.2-something, so the comeback is alive! A Plan One and a Plan Two both pending around $1.2 million.

The next sale will be critical though, to maintain some momentum.  We know that the house right across the street from these last two sales was foreclosed by HSBC in April – when will they list it, and for how much?  It’s a Plan One, so you could easily make a case for $1.1 million, and save my bet if it sells for that.

It listed yesterday for $989,000. Ouch.  The pictures won’t help much either, but at this price will a waiting buyer jump on it?

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Sunday, July 1st, 2007 at 2:56 PM

Actives/Pendings Rankings

We’re halfway through 2007, what areas are doing the best?


Watching the number of actives and pendings help indicate what areas are having moderate inventory growth, and continued new escrows opening.  Any explosion in inventory, or decline in new-escrows-opening (or both), would indicate trouble brewing.  We’ll keep an eye on these areas the rest of the year:


 June 30th           Actives/Pendings       Ratio


Carmel Valley         157/57                        2.75


Cardiff                         40/13                        3.08


Solana Beach            54/16                         3.38


Encinitas                  216/53                        4.08


Carlsbad                   515/115                      4.48


Del Mar                       91/17                         5.35


Oceanside               901/135                      6.67


RSF                           220/21                       10.43