Wednesday, February 14th, 2007 at 1:37 AM
More Psycho Babble
I’ll move this post over to the Psycho Babble category after a few days.
The North SD County Association of Realtors’ HomeDex email did arrive, but they didn’t report any big price drop - they said that in North SD County the median was flat in January compared to previous month, and year-over-year ($625,000). Here are the other highlights:
“The housing market is remaining stable with signs of optimism as the market swings into spring and early summer - traditionally the best time of year for the housing market.”
“The present market conditions are highly ideal for buyers. Interest rates remain comparable to 40-year lows and inventories becoming higher than has been the case in recent past.”
“Conditions may not last with early indications that the housing market outlook is improving. Prices are expected to rise modestly next year.”
These are our leaders. They are in the position to help agents help their clients. I don’t expect them to work too hard to produce a lot of supporting documentation, but PLEASE, can you offer more than the median sales price to back up your statements?
They did mention that the median days-on-market lengthened from 61 to 71 days in January and that detached sales dropped 25% since December, and an 8% drop year-over-year. No help offered though on how to explain the impact to our clients.
I apologize to the community on behalf of all realtors - you deserve better than this. Stay tuned here and I’ll do my best to keep the pertinent data coming your way.
Posted on Wednesday, February 14th, 2007 at 1:37 AM in Psycho-babble | | 
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Sounds like more bullsh@t from the cheerleaders.They might as well throw the median price in the trash because it is not representative of what is going on.What if a lot more higher priced homes sold vs lower priced homes, the median would still go up.They should have the median for seperate price ranges representaive of that market.This would give a better idea of what is going on.If you rely on a medain in such a wide data range it does not tell you reality.For instance what was the median for homes priced 400-500k?
arizonadude | February 14th, 2007 at 2:39 amNORTH COUNTY —- North County single-family home prices held fast in January even as prices elsewhere in San Diego County declined 5 percent year over year.
In its monthly HomeDex report Friday, the North San Diego County Association of Realtors reported that houses selling in the area in January sold for a median price of $625,000, the same as in January 2006.
Elsewhere, the median price slid from $543,000 a year ago to $516,900 last month.
Jim, I don’t understand this part?
(At the same time, the amount paid for single-family homes dropped 12.3 percent from a year ago, reflecting the 6.7 percent drop in the number of homes sold).
Thanks,
jr | February 14th, 2007 at 2:51 amThey don’t understand their own numbers.
They can’t calculate them.
They can’t explain them.
They can’t sell them.
They don’t even know what they mean.
But they can keep pushing the same rhetoric, believing they are doing a good deed. It would never occur to them to dig out the real data. Let’s keep it light and fun, and everything will be alright.
Jim the Realtor | February 14th, 2007 at 5:46 amAnd some agents wonder why they are held in such low regard. Even used car salesmen can see the value of a discount vs. volume when they’re only taking a few percent.
This is all part of the NBABTTB (Never Been a Better Time To Buy) discussion that will take off for the next 3 or 4 years… with each year showing lower and lower prices and better and better deals. Same crap as last time.
socalbubble.blogspot.com/2006/04/catching-falling-knife.html
Let’s see… we had
1. It’s still got a lot more in it!
2. It’s a new paradigm (just like last time)
3. Permanently High Plateau
Which must mean that we’re ready for the next step:
4. NBABTTB.
Why can’t the local association roll with the lower prices to get more volume? That would help themselves and their clients to get thier house sold… instead it just sits there. Are Agents really that dense?
We have already reached May 2006 inventory levels in OC, July ‘06 levels in Riverside County, May ‘06 levels in Sacramento County, but just over Feb ‘06 levels in San Diego County.
The whole "It’ll be better in the spring" schtick only lasts so long. Good thing people’s memories are short when it comes to money. Oh, it’s not? Oh, well, good luck with that whole spring rebound thing… we already did that last year and it didn’t work then.
John Doe
John Doe | February 14th, 2007 at 5:49 amsocalbubble.blogspot.com
I believe we’ll see slower inventory increases, relative to other counties, because we are about a year ahead of everyone else. Prices did not really rise in SD in 2006 (in many cases, they went down), but they rose in other counties. People already panicked in SD and did the "spring bounce" listings last year. This year, it will be the foreclosures and REOs which will determine where the market goes.
I anticipate the inventory to increase more in the summer, as it’s likely we’ll see a critical mass of "homeowners" who can no longer afford to stay in their homes and, absent rising prices, will not be able to refi out. I believe they are staying as long as possible in their "free" housing — until the bank takes it away.
At some point, the REO/private seller ratio will begin to change rather rapidly, IMHO. That is when things get interesting. I expect it to hit around the end of summer/fall of 2007 — and expect it to accelerate through 2008/2009. Let’s see what happens then.
CA renter | February 14th, 2007 at 8:47 am