I anticipate the inventory to increase more in the summer, as it’s likely we’ll see a critical mass of "homeowners" who can no longer afford to stay in their homes and, absent rising prices, will not be able to refi out. I believe they are staying as long as possible in their "free" housing — until the bank takes it away.

At some point, the REO/private seller ratio will begin to change rather rapidly, IMHO. That is when things get interesting. I expect it to hit around the end of summer/fall of 2007 — and expect it to accelerate through 2008/2009. Let’s see what happens then.

This is all part of the NBABTTB (Never Been a Better Time To Buy) discussion that will take off for the next 3 or 4 years… with each year showing lower and lower prices and better and better deals. Same crap as last time.

socalbubble.blogspot.com/2006/04/catching-falling-knife.html

Let’s see… we had
1. It’s still got a lot more in it!
2. It’s a new paradigm (just like last time)
3. Permanently High Plateau
Which must mean that we’re ready for the next step:
4. NBABTTB.

Why can’t the local association roll with the lower prices to get more volume? That would help themselves and their clients to get thier house sold… instead it just sits there. Are Agents really that dense?

We have already reached May 2006 inventory levels in OC, July ‘06 levels in Riverside County, May ‘06 levels in Sacramento County, but just over Feb ‘06 levels in San Diego County.

The whole "It’ll be better in the spring" schtick only lasts so long. Good thing people’s memories are short when it comes to money. Oh, it’s not? Oh, well, good luck with that whole spring rebound thing… we already did that last year and it didn’t work then.

John Doe
socalbubble.blogspot.com

They can’t calculate them.

They can’t explain them.

They can’t sell them.

They don’t even know what they mean.

But they can keep pushing the same rhetoric, believing they are doing a good deed. It would never occur to them to dig out the real data. Let’s keep it light and fun, and everything will be alright.

In its monthly HomeDex report Friday, the North San Diego County Association of Realtors reported that houses selling in the area in January sold for a median price of $625,000, the same as in January 2006.

Elsewhere, the median price slid from $543,000 a year ago to $516,900 last month.

Jim, I don’t understand this part?

(At the same time, the amount paid for single-family homes dropped 12.3 percent from a year ago, reflecting the 6.7 percent drop in the number of homes sold).

Thanks,