bubbleinfo.com

I’ll move this post over to the Psycho Babble category after a few days.

The North SD County Association of Realtors’ HomeDex email did arrive, but they didn’t report any big price drop – they said that in North SD County the median was flat in January compared to previous month, and year-over-year ($625,000). Here are the other highlights:

“The housing market is remaining stable with signs of optimism as the market swings into spring and early summer – traditionally the best time of year for the housing market.”

“The present market conditions are highly ideal for buyers. Interest rates remain comparable to 40-year lows and inventories becoming higher than has been the case in recent past.”

“Conditions may not last with early indications that the housing market outlook is improving. Prices are expected to rise modestly next year.”

These are our leaders. They are in the position to help agents help their clients. I don’t expect them to work too hard to produce a lot of supporting documentation, but PLEASE, can you offer more than the median sales price to back up your statements?

They did mention that the median days-on-market lengthened from 61 to 71 days in January and that detached sales dropped 25% since December, and an 8% drop year-over-year. No help offered though on how to explain the impact to our clients.

I apologize to the community on behalf of all realtors – you deserve better than this. Stay tuned here and I’ll do my best to keep the pertinent data coming your way.

Received today by email:

Saturday, February 10, 2007

REAL ESTATE ROUNDUP

by JOHN LUNDIN

John Lundin & Associates

Real Estate Slump May Have Bottomed Out

The final housing numbers for 2006 are in, and they confirm what anyone who bought or sold a home last year has suspected: It was the worst housing slump in nearly two decades, both locally and nationally.

The freshest numbers also provided tea leaves for the more pressing question: has the housing market bottomed out yet — or will prices slide further before the market recovers?

After an historic five-year boom propelled by a strong economy and low interest rate, the real estate market went bust in 2006, according to the final tally released by the National Association of Realtors. Nationally sales of existing single-family homes fell 8.4 percent to about 6.5 million, the biggest annual decline since a 14.8 percent drop in 1989.

Like everything in real estate, a lot depended on location, location, location. The West — which had seen outsized gains during the boom — was hit hardest by the slump, with sales off nearly 16 percent last year. Sales in the South were down 7 percent, while the Midwest and Northeast saw sales fall nearly 6 percent for the year.

Double-digit price gains that sparked a frenzy of condo flipping and speculative building also came to an abrupt halt last year. The median price of an existing home rose just 1.1 percent last year — less than inflation — compared with 12.4 percent in 2005.

Those numbers have driven away much of the quick-buck crowd that loaded up on unbuilt condos and helped fuel the rapid rise in prices. In 2005, some 40 percent of the market represented investment or second-home purchases. Comparable figures for 2006 were not yet available, but the departure of those investors should help stabilize the market, according to David Lereah, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

“With fingers and toes crossed, it appears that we have hit bottom in the existing-home market,” he said.

The trade group’s official forecast calls for a 1.2 percent drop in sales of existing homes this year and a 1.5 percent increase in the median price.

Some market watchers note that at 6.5 million sales a year the pace of homes sales is still strong by pre-boom standards. And there are signs that the slump is easing, if not reversing course. Brian Westbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, notes that lumber prices, mortgage activity and some homebuilder stocks have begun to pick up.

“It looks to me as though maybe we haven’t reached the complete bottom yet, but we’re in the bottoming phase right now,” Westbury says.

The good news is that — unlike some past housing slumps — this one doesn’t look like it’s going to drag the overall economy down with it. Unemployment remains low, consumers seem to be weathering the housing downturn reasonably well, and interest rates are still in check.

In North San Diego County , signs of increasing activity abound. Area Realtors report more buyers are actively looking at homes once again, and more homes have gone into escrow over the past few weeks than during any period since August of last year.

Buyers are still finding an abundance of homes for sale, often at reduced prices. Mortgage financing remains readily available at interest rates that are still near record lows.

This first quarter of the year could be a turning point in the North County real estate market, and it is certainly an attractive time for buyers to be buying.

John Lundin is a San Marcos REALTOR ® and the broker/owner of John Lundin & Associates.